The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has unveiled its winter 2025-2026 forecast, offering a crucial glimpse into the temperature and precipitation trends expected across the United States from December through February. This year’s outlook is heavily influenced by the return of La Niña conditions, a natural climate pattern that typically brings a distinct set of weather dynamics. While some regions prepare for colder, snowier conditions, much of the country anticipates milder temperatures and potentially drier spells, shaping a diverse and complex winter landscape.
As the chill of late autumn settles in, eyes across the United States turn to the annual winter forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Released on October 16, 2025, this seasonal outlook for December 2025 through February 2026 provides a long-range perspective, helping communities and individuals prepare for the conditions ahead. Unlike daily weather reports, this forecast indicates the likelihood of overall average temperatures and precipitation falling above, below, or near historical norms for the entire meteorological winter.
NOAA’s Official Winter Outlook: A Regional Breakdown
The NOAA Climate Prediction Center’s outlook paints a varied picture for the upcoming winter, with significant differences expected depending on your location. Understanding these regional distinctions is key to grasping the full scope of the forecast.
Temperature Predictions
- Colder-than-Normal Conditions: The forecast indicates a higher likelihood of below-average temperatures for a broad area stretching from the Pacific Northwest eastward to include the northern Rockies, the northern Plains, and the upper Mississippi Valley. This region, encompassing major metropolitan areas like Chicago, should prepare for a colder season than typically expected. Extreme southeastern mainland Alaska and the Alaska Panhandle are also favored to see below-normal temperatures.
- Warmer-than-Normal Conditions: Conversely, much of the southern and eastern United States is poised for a milder winter. Warmer-than-normal temperatures are most likely for California, the southern Great Basin, the southern Rockies, the Southwest eastward to Texas, the Southeast, and the coastal Mid-Atlantic. The highest confidence in these warmer conditions lies in the Southwest, southern Florida, and northwest Alaska.
Precipitation Predictions
- Above-Average Precipitation: Regions most likely to experience wetter-than-normal conditions this winter include the Pacific Northwest, the northern Rockies, the Great Plains, and the Great Lakes. This enhanced moisture could manifest as significant snowfall if temperatures are cold enough.
- Drier-than-Average Conditions: A drier winter is anticipated across the southern half of the country, stretching from Southern California through much of Texas, the exterior Southeast, and the coastal Mid-Atlantic. This could lead to worsening or persistent drought conditions in these areas, particularly the southern Plains, Southeast, and lower Mid-Atlantic.
The Driving Force: La Niña’s Return
The primary influence shaping the Winter 2025-2026 outlook is the return of La Niña conditions, as noted by Jon Gottschalck, chief of the operational prediction branch of the Climate Prediction Center. La Niña is a natural variation characterized by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. This phenomenon significantly impacts global weather patterns, pushing the polar jet stream over the U.S. northward.
For the United States, a typical La Niña winter often translates to a dominant weather pattern that keeps the southern half of the country warmer and drier. Concurrently, the Pacific Northwest and extending into the Great Lakes region typically experience cooler and wetter conditions than average. While this particular La Niña event is considered weak and potentially shorter than normal in duration, its impact is expected to be most pronounced during the winter months, playing a pivotal role in the forecasted trends.
Other factors, such as a “warm blob” of Pacific Ocean water off the West Coast, were considered, though their long-term predictive influence remains highly uncertain due to their rapid variability. Climate patterns like the Arctic Oscillation and Madden-Julian Oscillation, which can trigger intense cold air outbreaks, are not included in these long-range seasonal forecasts due to their limited predictability more than a few weeks in advance, according to the NOAA Climate Prediction Center.
Snowfall Expectations: More Than Just Temperatures
While the NOAA winter outlook provides crucial insights into temperature and precipitation, it does not offer specific snowfall totals. Snowfall is highly dependent on the precise track and strength of individual winter storms, which cannot be reliably predicted months in advance. However, the precipitation outlook offers strong clues.
Areas forecasted for above-average precipitation, such as the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, Great Plains, and Great Lakes, could experience increased snowfall if cold enough conditions align. This means that while these regions are expected to be wetter, the exact form that precipitation takes (rain, snow, or ice) will depend on day-to-day weather events.
In contrast, the southern half of the country, predicted to be drier than average, will likely see less snowfall than is typical for winter. Even in regions like Chicago, which is often associated with heavy snow, historical data from previous La Niña winters has shown slightly lower-than-normal average snowfall. This is partly due to climate change; winter is Chicago’s fastest-warming season, meaning more precipitation may fall as rain rather than snow, despite potentially wetter conditions overall.
Historical Context: A Warming Trend
The winter 2025-2026 forecast arrives against a backdrop of significant long-term climate trends. Data from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and NOAA confirms that the contiguous United States has been getting warmer every season since the early 1900s. Winters, in particular, have experienced the most significant increase, rising by about 3 degrees Fahrenheit on average, according to the EPA’s climate indicators.
This warming trend culminated in Winter 2023-24 being recorded as the warmest winter on average for the country in 130 years, with more than half of all U.S. states experiencing their top-10 warmest winters on record. Despite this overarching trend, recent winters have also seen dramatic snow outliers, from record-breaking and deadly snow in the South in late January 2025 to a prolonged snow drought in the Northeast that lasted over 700 days, ending for some areas in 2024. This highlights the complex interplay between long-term warming and short-term extreme weather events.
Beyond the Forecast: What it Means for You
The NOAA winter 2025-2026 outlook offers more than just numbers; it provides valuable information for planning and preparation across various sectors. For residents in the forecasted colder and wetter regions, this could mean increased energy costs, potential travel disruptions, and a need for robust winter gear. Conversely, those in warmer, drier areas might see reduced heating bills but face heightened concerns about drought conditions and wildfire risks, even in winter months.
For agriculture, the amount and timing of precipitation (whether rain or snow) are crucial for soil moisture and crop health. Recreational industries, from ski resorts to winter tourism, depend heavily on these seasonal predictions. It is worth noting that private forecasters, such as AccuWeather, also released their winter outlooks, predicting a “bookend winter” for the central and eastern U.S., with intense storms likely at the beginning and end of the season for the Midwest, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, Northeast, and Mid-Atlantic.
While long-range forecasts like NOAA’s provide invaluable insights into overall trends, it’s essential to remember that day-to-day weather can still bring surprises. Staying informed through local weather reports as the season progresses will remain critical for navigating the specifics of Winter 2025-2026.
