Week 8 of college football promises a thrilling slate of games, with several top-25 clashes poised to reshape conference races and playoff aspirations. From the SEC showdowns featuring Ole Miss at Georgia and Georgia at Texas to critical ACC and Big Ten matchups, underdogs are poised for upsets while powerhouses face their toughest tests yet. Our deep dive analyzes the odds, predictions, and fan-driven narratives that make this week a must-watch.
As the college football season marches on, Week 8 emerges as a pivotal juncture, packed with high-leverage matchups that could define paths to conference championships and the College Football Playoff. Following a Week 7 that saw surprising upsets and dramatic finishes, the stage is set for even more intrigue. This week, no fewer than four top-25 matchups headline the schedule, along with several other games offering significant betting value and fan discussion points.
The Shifting Landscape: Week 8’s Movers and Shakers
The narratives heading into Week 8 are heavily influenced by the unexpected performances of previous weeks. Teams like Indiana have emerged as significant “movers,” transforming from long-shot contenders to having a “paved road to the Big Ten title game” after dethroning Oregon’s home winning streak. Similarly, USC has re-entered the AP rankings following a dominant performance against Michigan, while UCLA‘s upset over Penn State and subsequent win at Michigan State have positioned them to be rated higher than preseason expectations, as reported by Yahoo Sports.
However, not all shifts are positive. In the MAC, long-time powerhouse Toledo finds itself in a precarious 1-2 position after blowing a 21-0 lead to Bowling Green, creating significant market “shakeups” for teams previously favored in their leagues.
Marquee Matchups: Picks and Predictions
Ole Miss Rebels at Georgia Bulldogs
The Rebels face their first road test in SEC play with quarterback Trinidad Chambliss, who has been stellar in four home starts. Historically, Georgia’s defense is stout, and despite some early lapses in big games, they are poised to exploit Chambliss’s road debut. The consensus leans towards Georgia, particularly in the first half, with doubts about Ole Miss scoring multiple touchdowns early. Our pick: Ole Miss 1H team total under 10.5.
USC Trojans at Notre Dame Fighting Irish
This rivalry game is always intense. While Notre Dame has impressive defensive metrics, including seven interceptions in their last three games, USC has significantly upgraded its offense with quarterback Jayden Maiava and elite receiver Makai Lemon. USC’s high havoc rate (ranking 26th and 14th) suggests they can disrupt Notre Dame’s rhythm. Despite Notre Dame’s seemingly dominant wins, some analyses suggest their “cosmetic scores” might overrate them. We see value in the underdog: USC +9.5 and a sprinkle on the moneyline.
Georgia Bulldogs vs. Texas Longhorns
This top-five showdown in Austin features a Texas Longhorns team that has been impressive in every facet, boasting 43.17 points per game and allowing just 6.33. Conversely, Georgia’s pass rush is not as elite as in past years, and quarterback Carson Beck has shown vulnerability under pressure. Texas has dominated strong opponents like Oklahoma (34-3) and Michigan (31-12), while Georgia has had tighter contests against Mississippi State and Alabama. Texas’s strong defensive line, ranking fourth nationally in pass-rushing grade by PFF, combined with their home-field advantage at Darrell K Royal – Texas Memorial Stadium, makes them a strong play. All three projection models from Action Network agree. Our pick: Texas -3.5.
Tennessee Volunteers at Alabama Crimson Tide
This rivalry game sees both teams needing a win to stay in contention. Alabama has navigated a tough schedule, but some observers believe they are vulnerable, having dodged close calls in recent weeks. Tennessee, despite some inconsistencies, presents a speed-racer offense that can challenge any defense. With Alabama facing its fourth straight high-leverage game against a top-flight SEC squad, the “spot” favors the underdog. Our pick: Tennessee +8.5.
LSU Tigers at Vanderbilt Commodores
LSU’s offense has struggled to score against Power Four opponents, ranking in the bottom half of the SEC in offensive success rate and dead-last in line yards. The defense has been a saving grace, but Vanderbilt Commodores possess surprisingly strong metrics, including a better line yards defense than Alabama and a better success rate allowed than Tennessee. The betting market may be underrating Vanderbilt’s offensive capabilities, making them a valuable home pick. Our pick: Vanderbilt -2.5.
UNLV Rebels at Boise State Broncos
Against expectations, UNLV Rebels remain undefeated, showcasing an offense that averages 191 yards per game on the ground and 442 overall, placing them among the conference’s best. Boise State has already clinched the under on their preseason win total of 10.5, meaning they are now tasked with covering large numbers as favorites. UNLV’s high-powered offense has shown it can keep pace in shootouts, suggesting the backdoor cover will be open. Our pick: UNLV +11.5.
Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Michigan State Spartans
Iowa’s defense is stifling, capable of shutting down even strong offenses, as evidenced by holding Washington to just 10 points. Michigan State’s offensive line struggles are a major liability, ranking 125th in offensive line yards and fourth-worst in pass-blocking grade by PFF. This will allow Iowa’s defensive front to pressure quarterback Aidan Chiles without blitzing, forcing him to throw into one of the nation’s best secondaries. On offense, Iowa running back Kaleb Johnson, averaging 7.9 yards per carry, should exploit Michigan State’s weak tackling. Our pick: Iowa -6.
Virginia Cavaliers vs. Clemson Tigers
Clemson, despite recent blowouts, may be getting “a little too much love in the market.” Their defensive numbers against the run are concerning (116th in EPA/rush allowed), and Virginia’s rushing offense has been steadily improving, ranking 25th in offensive line yards. Historically, Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney has been less profitable against the spread as a big favorite since 2020. With insider knowledge from former Clemson staffer and current Virginia coach Tony Elliott, the Cavaliers are a strong value play. Our pick: Virginia +21.5.
Purdue Boilermakers at Northwestern Wildcats
After a surprising win over Penn State, Northwestern might be due for a letdown against a scrappy Purdue Boilermakers team looking for its first Big Ten win. Purdue has shown offensive capability, scoring 30 against Notre Dame and 27 against Illinois. Historically, games between these two teams are often decided by one score, with six of the last seven contests within eight points or less. Our pick: Purdue +3.5 and a sprinkle on the moneyline.
Texas A&M Aggies at Arkansas Razorbacks
Texas A&M Aggies face a challenging three-game road stretch after beating Notre Dame at home, starting with Arkansas. With running back Le’Veon Moss out, the Aggies could struggle on the road, especially after playing three straight at home. Arkansas, despite a 2-4 record, is getting 7.5 points at home, and the Aggies have already had some close calls that could have been losses. Our pick: Arkansas +7.5 and a sprinkle on the moneyline.
SMU Mustangs at Stanford Cardinal
SMU Mustangs have been exceptionally impressive, blowing out TCU and Florida State and then defeating Louisville as underdogs. Quarterback Kevin Jennings has been efficient, complementing his 1,014 passing yards and six touchdowns with 262 rushing yards and two scores. Stanford has lost three straight by 24+ points and struggles to score, having not exceeded 14 points in those outings. The SportsLine model projects SMU to cover 70% of the time. Our pick: SMU -14.5.
Utah Utes at BYU Cougars
The “Holy War” renews with BYU Cougars still undefeated but not favored at home against a potentially healthier Utah Utes. BYU’s recent performance against Arizona was less than convincing, requiring double-overtime to secure the win. Utah, despite an earlier loss to Texas Tech, appears to be hitting its stride and is the better team. Coach Kyle Whittingham will undoubtedly have his team motivated for this rivalry matchup. Our pick: Utah -3.5.
The Impact of Week 8
Week 8 is more than just another Saturday of football; it’s a critical inflection point where contenders solidify their positions and dark horses emerge. The outcomes of these games will reverberate through conference standings, impact national rankings, and fuel endless debates among fans. Whether you’re tracking playoff hopefuls or rooting for an underdog, the intensity and unpredictability of college football ensure that every snap, every drive, and every last-second play carries immense weight. Get ready for a weekend that promises to deliver unforgettable moments and reshape the landscape of the 2024 season.
