Former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo is at the precipice of a remarkable political comeback, but a second-term Assembly member stands in his way.
New York City Democrats head to the polls on June 24 to vote in citywide elections that will determine their party’s nominee − and thus the favorite to win in November − for every office from mayor to county court judge.
The mayoral race presents a stark contrast in its two leading candidates: Cuomo, 67, is the oldest and state Assembly Member Zohran Mamdani, 33, is its youngest.
Each also represents an ideological pole in the 11-candidate field, with Cuomo − a centrist who appointed many Republicans to his gubernatorial administration − on its right, and Democratic Socialists of America-member Mamdani on its left.
While Cuomo has pledged to hire more police and increase private housing construction, Mamdani has excited progressives with promises to freeze rents in regulated apartments and make buses free.
The battle between the two of them, and a host of other local officials, on who can best stand up to President Donald Trump, lower the city’s housing costs, and remove homeless people from the streets and subways has drawn big spending from billionaires on Cuomo’s behalf. A Super PAC backing Cuomo has spent $24 million, much of it raised from Trump mega-donors such as hedge fund manager Bill Ackman and real estate executive Steven Roth ($200,000). Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg kicked in $5 million.
Winning would cap a startling resurrection for Cuomo, a three-term governor who resigned in 2021 amid condemnation for scandals including covering up nursing home deaths and numerous allegations of sexual harassment, which he denies.
Cuomo recently moved back to New York City for the first time in three decades, and launched a run for mayor, becoming an instant frontrunner. Many elected officials who condemnded him in 2021 have endorsed him for mayor this year.
But while he has led in polls throughout the race, Cuomo’s lead has gradually diminished. A June 23 Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill survey released June 23 showed Mamdani edging him out in the final round of the instant runoff that will use the city’s ranked-choice voting system to determine a winner. Betting markets, which previously showed Cuomo with a far greater chance of winning, are now almost tied on the eve of the election.
Notably absent from the ballot is incumbent Mayor Eric Adams, who has dropped out of the primary to run as an independent in the general election. Adams has seen sagging approval numbers since his 2024 criminal indictment on federal corruption charges. He subsequently aligned himself increasingly with Trump, whose Department of Justice dropped the charges.
More: NYC’s Democratic primary is here. What to know about candidates, ranked choice voting
Ranked choice voting in a crowded field
While Cuomo continued to lead Mamdani in first-place voters, New York City primaries now use a system of ranked-choice voting, in which voters rank up to five candidates.
And they have a plethora to choose from. New York City Comptroller Brad Lander is polling in third place, and he and Mamdani have cross-endorsed one another, encouraging their supporters to rank the other candidate second. Then there’s Lander’s predcessor Scott Stringer, City Council Speaker Adrienne Adams (no relation to the mayor), state Sen. Zelnor Myrie, former Assembly Member Michael Blake and retired hedge fund manager Whitney Tilson.
With the exception of Tilson, the candidates generally lean left, and their supporters may be more likely to rank Mamdani than Cuomo down ballot. That is the dynamic that led to Mamdani overtaking Cuomo in the instant runoff in the most recent poll.
“In this ranked choice environment, I do feel there are scenarios in which Cuomo is beatable,” Basil Smikle, a New York City-based political consultant, told USA TODAY in early June.
An extreme heat wave could harm turnout
New York City is in the midst of a severe heat wave, with temperatures well above 90 degrees and the city’s stifling summer humidity. June 24 is expected to be especially scorching, with highs breaking the rarely-breached 100-degree mark.
Conventional wisdom poses a threat to Cuomo, because his supporters skew older and are more likely to stay away because of the temperature. The former governor complained on June 19 that the Board of Elections’ plans to mitigate the heat were insufficient and demanded air conditioning in polling places. Cuomo’s backers are also more likely to cast their ballots on Election Day, while Mamdani’s − who tend to be younger, highly educated, engaged, and enthusiastic − are better represented among those who took advantage of early voting, which started on June 14.
A campaign under Trump’s shadow
As he does in all facets of politics, President Donald Trump looms large in his former hometown’s elections. Adams’ increasingly friendly relationship with Trump has driven his split with the Democratic Party’s base, while every other candidate pledges to fight against the president.
In a clearly implied contrast with Adams, progressive candidates have tried to prove their anti-Trump bona fides on immigration. Mamdani shouted at White House immigration czar Tom Homan when Homan came to the state Capitol in Albany, and Lander recently made national news by getting arrested escorting an immigrant out of a deportation hearing.
Cuomo has argued that his experience makes him best qualified to handle Trump.
“Donald Trump would go through Mr. Mamdani like a hot knife through butter,” Cuomo said at a June 5 debate that was dominated mostly by opponents’ attacks on his record.
AOC, Bernie Sanders, Bill Clinton weigh in
Prominent figures in national politics have weighed in on both sides. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, whose district overlaps with Mamdani’s in Queens, put him at the top of her ballot. Sen. Bernie Sanders, the independent Vermont socialist who grew up in Brooklyn, is backing Mamdani as well.
But beacons of the Democratic Party’s moderate establishment such as former President Bill Clinton have weighed in on behalf of Cuomo.
With New York’s complicated instant runoff, in which the lowest ranked candidate in each round is eliminated, taking days to conduct, the only thing that will be known on election night is who got the most first place votes.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: NYC mayoral Democratic primary: Andrew Cuomo against Zohran Mamdani
