Nothing is set in stone on tariffs as President Trump’s July 9 deadline approaches.
“My expectation would be that for countries that are negotiating in good faith and making progress, that rolling back the deadline makes sense,” Council of Economic Advisers chairman Stephen Miran said on Yahoo Finance’s Opening Bid (see video above). “I mean, you don’t blow up a deal that’s that’s in process and making really good faith, sincere, authentic progress by dropping a tariff bomb in it.”
Miran said that after all deals are done and dusted, the aggregate tariff rate may not fall materially below the current 10% universal tariff. However, individual countries may fare better or worse.
“A few countries may be making such aggressive concessions,” he explained. “They convinced the president to lower tariffs below 10%. There are other countries that are just going to be stubborn and decide no. And then they’ll have the ‘Liberation Day’ tariff snap back up on them.”
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Another area of focus has been the Trump tax plan, known formally as the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. The legislation was passed by the Republican-controlled House in March. Since then, the Senate has been working to find common ground to pass the bill and hand it to Trump before a self-imposed July 4 deadline.
Some of the biggest components of the plan include extending the 2017 Trump tax cuts to the tune of $3.75 trillion and cutting about $1.3 trillion from various government programs such as Medicaid and food assistance.
Estimates of the impact of the plan have varied.
New research from the CEA estimated the Senate tax plan would create more than $100 billion in investment and 1 million-plus new jobs over a 10-year span. The economic growth fueled by the tax plan — including trillions in revenue from tariffs — is estimated to reduce the deficit by $2.1 trillion to $2.3 trillion.
However, tariffs are independent from the tax plan and will be negotiated separately with trading partners.
“The ‘one, big beautiful bill’ contains numerous tax incentives for better economic growth,” Miran claimed. “There’s full expensing on investment, full expensing on equipment, investment on new factories on R&D. There’s things like no taxes on tips and overtime and Social Security. And these are targeted at segments of the population that are very responsive to incentives to work more. And these will get economic growth booming.”
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The Congressional Budget Office (CBO), however, estimated the bill could lift deficits by $2.8 trillion over the next 10 years, partially due to more subdued economic growth estimates relative to the CEA’s research.
“We estimate that the proposals included in the latest package would boost S&P 500 earnings and cash flows by about 5% in 2026, with a diminishing impact in subsequent years,” Goldman Sachs managing director Ben Snider wrote in a note.
Brian Sozzi is Yahoo Finance’s Executive Editor and a member of Yahoo Finance’s editorial leadership team. Follow Sozzi on X @BrianSozzi, Instagram, and LinkedIn. Tips on stories? Email brian.sozzi@yahoofinance.com.
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