- Bitcoin consolidates around $82,000 on Monday, on course to close the month with a mild 3% drop from the $84,400 opening.
- Coin Bureau Nic Puckrin shares exclusive insights on Bitcoin’s market outlook as Q2 2025 kicks off.
- Upward-sloping Coinbase BTC Premium Index signals strong buying support among US investors amid tariff concerns.
Bitcoin price stabilized at the $83,400 mark on Monday, down 2% from the March opening price of $84,430. After posting 18% losses in February, BTC is on course to end March in red with another 2% haircut. Citing historical trends and critical on-chain data trends among US investors, CoinBureau CEO and ex-Goldman Sachs analyst Nic Puckrin makes bold predictions of a new BTC price all-time high in April 2025.
Question 1: Bitcoin has become increasingly correlated to US stocks, what does this mean for near-term price action?
Nic Puckrin: “A large proportion of Bitcoin investors weren’t around in 2017 – and for those that were, it feels like a different century because the crypto market moves so quickly.
For those who were watching the charts back then, though, Bitcoin’s current sideways consolidation pattern looks eerily similar to what we saw in fall 2017.
Back then, the leading crypto asset also spent several months consolidating around the $4,000 mark, before exploding some 360% from roughly $4,300 in October 2017 to its then all-time high of $19,800 in December.
And there’s a high chance we may see a similar trend playing out now, as long as Bitcoin manages to correct its recent divergence from the 2017 trading pattern.
This isn’t just speculation based on overlaying one chart over another.
The economic backdrop and sentiment look similar to 2017. Then, the sideways movement was driven by escalating fear, uncertainty and doubt (FUD) as China banned crypto initial coin offerings (ICOs) – the key driver of the 2017 bull run – and shut down all domestic crypto exchanges.”
- Q2: Heading into April 2025, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index reads ‘Extreme Fear’. What are your insights on this?
Nic Puckrin: Today, the global attitude to cryptocurrency is very different, yet the crypto Fear & Greed index has only just rebounded from “Extreme Fear” amid concerns about the impact of US President Donald Trump’s tariffs on risk assets.
The Libra meme coin fiasco, which cost investors $251 million in losses, hasn’t helped investor confidence, with several headlines calling the end of the bull market.
Crypto Fear and Greed Index, March 31, 2025 | Source: CoinmarketCap
And then there’s the monetary policy backdrop. Bitcoin tends to follow global liquidity cycles very closely (total money supply in the market).
During the 2017 cycle, we were seeing global liquidity ramping up; it peaked in January 2018, which also happened to mark the top of the previous cycle. In our current cycle, global liquidity is still increasing and all signs point to more of it flooding into the system (end of QT, China, Europe etc).
These similarities in the macro backdrop give me confidence that BTC is highly likely to repeat the breakout pattern of 2017.
However, with Bitcoin now a much more stable asset, a 360% surge isn’t on the cards. I do, however, expect it to surpass its previous all-time high (ATH) of $109,354 (on January 20), likely hitting a new peak of around $150,000 during this cycle.
To do so, it must first break past a key resistance level at around $93,000, which is the 50% level from a high of around $109,000 on January 20 and a low of $76,000 on March 11. If Bitcoin does hit $93,000, this could create a Double Top pattern, which typically sees a rejection.
- Q3: Considering the growing pushback against Trump’s Crypto Strategic Reserve proposal, what fundamental metrics could support this optimistic BTC price prediction?
Nic Puckrin: The good news is that since the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on March 19, Bitcoin has been trading above its 200-day moving average – typically a bullish sign.
It has also broken out of its three-month price downtrend and its RSI downtrend, which likely signals a shift in sentiment and might precede a stronger bounce in price.
Coinbase Premium Index, March 2025 | Source: CryptoQuant
Despite the pushback against Trump’s Crypto Strategic Reserve proposal, Bitcoin demand among US Investors remains destiny.
CryptoQuant’s Coinbase Premium Index sloping upwards shows US investors are bullish enough to pay a premium for BTC on Coinbase over offshore exchanges.
Q4: What is your Bitcoin price forecast for April 2025?
Nic Puckrin: The caveat here is that, in the very short term, we’re yet to see a pick-up in trading volume or 24-hour liquidations that would signal an imminent price surge.
Daily exchange trading volume has, in fact, been dropping and currently sits at levels last seen in October 2024, 75% below the July peak of $132 billion, while liquidations remain low at around $250 million. This suggests BTC might struggle to break out of its holding pattern in the very near future.
Bitcoin Price Forecast, April 2025
However, with Bitcoin market volatility recently hitting a six-month high, this could turn in a matter of hours if there’s a catalyst.
It’s encouraging to see the price reacting far less to tariff news now than it did a few weeks earlier.
If BTC can breach that $93,000 threshold, it could go flying to a new all-time high in a manner very much reminiscent of 2017.
