CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten said on Wednesday that Democrats are historically lagging in the polling with just one year ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
Democrats are currently leading Republicans by two points in the generic congressional margin, which is historically significantly lower than the percentages ahead of the 2006 and 2018 midterms elections when a Republican president held office, Enten said on “CNN News Central,” citing his own aggregate data. In July 2006 and July 2017, Democrats held a seven-point ahead of the midterms.
“Democrats are behind their 2006 and 2018 paces when it comes to the generic congressional ballot … Look at where we are now, Democrats are ahead, but by just two points,” Enten said. “Look at where Democrats were already ahead by in 2017, they were ahead by 7 points. How about 2005 on the congressional ballot? Ahead by 7 points, ahead by 7 points, and now they’re only ahead by 2 points? That lead is less than half of where it was in either 2017 or 2005 in July. In those years, the year before the midterm elections. Yes, Donald Trump may be unpopular, but Democrats have not come anywhere close to sealing the deal at this particular point.” (RELATED: ‘Look At That Shift!’: CNN’s Harry Enten Blown Away By Surge In Immigration Support For Trump)
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Unlike in 2005 or 2017, Republicans are leading Democrats by 12 points in their chances of gaining more net pickup seats, Enten said. Democrats previously held more pickup opportunities, including in 2007 when they held a seven-point lead and in 2017 when the party held a 33-point lead.
“It’s actually, when it goes seat by seat, that at least particular point, Republicans actually have more net pickup opportunities. This doesn’t look anything like those wave elections back in 2006 or 2018,” Enten continued.
The Democrats also held the same two-point lead in October 2024, indicating that the party may be in a tough spot to win back the House. Republicans won a sweeping victory in the 2024 election by reclaiming the House, flipping the Senate and winning the White House.
Trump is currently “more beloved” by his party’s voters than any other Republican president in the past few decades, Enten found on July 1. The president has delivered on several key campaign promises, including lowering inflation, implementing a no tax on tips and overtime policy and securing the U.S.-Mexico border.
Democrats have witnessed record-low approval ratings that have not been seen since the 1990s. A CNN/SSRS poll found in March that Democrats’ favorability stood at just 29%, the lowest percentage dating back to 1992. A Marist/NPR/PBS News poll released on July 1 found that 27% of Americans approve of how congressional Democrats are performing.
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