California faces a momentous Tuesday with two critical elections poised to significantly impact both state and national politics. Voters will cast ballots in a special primary to fill former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s vacated seat in the 20th Congressional District and decide the fate of Proposition 50, a controversial redistricting measure that could dramatically reshape the U.S. House’s balance of power for years to come.
On Tuesday, California finds itself at the epicenter of two pivotal political contests, each carrying profound implications for the state’s representation and the national political landscape. Voters are heading to the polls for a special primary election in the 20th Congressional District to replace former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, whose abrupt departure in December left a significant void. Simultaneously, a statewide special election asks Californians to weigh in on Proposition 50, a ballot measure designed to implement a new congressional map that could fundamentally alter the balance of power in Washington.
The Race to Replace Kevin McCarthy in CA-20th Congressional District
The first electoral battle unfolds in California’s 20th Congressional District, a reliably Republican stronghold in the Central Valley that Kevin McCarthy represented since 2007. His resignation in December, following his ouster as House Speaker, triggered this special primary election, which aims to fill the remainder of his term through the end of the year.
Key Contenders and District Dynamics
Nine candidates are on the ballot, running irrespective of party affiliation under California’s unique top-two primary system. If any candidate secures over 50% of the vote, they win outright. Otherwise, the top two finishers will advance to a May 21 runoff election.
The Republican field features front-runners Vince Fong, a state assemblyman, and Mike Boudreaux, the Tulare County Sheriff. Fong, who previously advised McCarthy, has garnered high-profile endorsements from McCarthy himself and former President Donald Trump. Boudreaux, conversely, relies on strong local backing from county leaders and various Republican groups within the district.
Democrats have largely united behind Marisa Wood, who notably advanced to the general election against McCarthy in 2022. However, she finished third in the March 5 primary for a full term starting in January 2025, indicating an uphill battle in this heavily red district.
The 20th District spans parts of Fresno, Kern, Kings, and Tulare counties, a significant agricultural region. Its conservative lean is undeniable; Donald Trump won the district by 25 percentage points in 2020, and McCarthy secured reelection by a 33-point margin over Wood in the most recent contest. Regardless of Tuesday’s special primary outcome, the district is guaranteed to be represented by a Republican in the next Congress, as Fong and Boudreaux have already advanced to the November general election for a full term.
Turnout and Vote Counting Expectations
Voters registered in California’s 20th congressional district are eligible to participate, with polls closing at 11 p.m. EDT. This special primary is anticipated to have significantly lower turnout compared to the March 5 primary, which coincided with the state’s presidential primaries. In that earlier election, Fong led with about 41% of the vote, followed by Boudreaux at 25%.
Vote tabulation in California is known for taking time. In the March primary, the Associated Press first reported results around 11 minutes after polls closed, but election night counting concluded with only about 51% of total votes tabulated. Patience will be key as results trickle in for this crucial congressional seat.
Proposition 50: The High-Stakes Redistricting Battle
Beyond the individual congressional race, California voters statewide face a single, critical yes-or-no question on their ballot: Proposition 50. This measure, strongly advocated by Gov. Gavin Newsom and state Democrats, seeks to implement a new congressional map for the next three election cycles. The map, which passed the state legislature in August, aims to significantly bolster Democratic representation in the U.S. House, as reported by the Associated Press.
National Implications of Partisan Gerrymandering
This California initiative is part of a broader national trend where politicians across the country are actively reshaping congressional voting districts outside of the decennial census schedule. The goal is clear: to give an electoral advantage to their respective parties. Texas initiated this movement, adopting a new Republican-controlled map after a push from President Donald Trump that could flip five Democratic-leaning House seats. Following California’s legislative move, both Missouri and North Carolina have also adopted new maps, with other states likely to follow.
The outcome of Prop 50 could be instrumental in determining control of the U.S. House beyond the 2026 midterm elections. With Republicans currently holding a narrow 219-213 majority (with three vacancies), a shift of even a few seats in California could prove decisive.
The Potential Impact in California
If Proposition 50 is approved, Democrats could potentially control as many as 48 of California’s 52 congressional seats, a significant increase from their current 43. The proposed maps would, in some instances, redraw district lines dramatically, such as uniting conservative-leaning northern California with the liberal coastal stronghold of Marin County. Other districts would see only minor adjustments or remain unchanged.
A Battle of Funds and Influence
Both sides of Proposition 50 have poured significant resources into the campaign, with over $200 million in total contributions. The Democratic-backed “Yes” campaign is favored, buoyed by the state’s substantial Democratic voter registration advantage of more than 4.5 million voters and Kamala Harris’s 20-point win in the state in the last presidential election.
The “Yes” side has raised approximately $138 million, with significant contributions from Gov. Newsom ($2.6 million of his own campaign funds) and the House Majority PAC (almost $15 million). Conversely, opponents, including prominent Republicans like Kevin McCarthy and former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, have raised over $80 million. The “No” campaign has framed the initiative as an attempt by Democrats to circumvent the voter-approved independent redistricting commission, a charge strongly supported by Schwarzenegger, a vocal opponent of gerrymandering. However, their ad spending has slowed to a trickle in the days leading up to the election, according to AdImpact data.
Election Logistics for Proposition 50
California’s special election for Proposition 50 will also be held on Tuesday, with polls closing at 8 p.m. PT (11 p.m. ET). Mail-in voting has been available for weeks, and any registered Californian voter is eligible to participate.
As of September 5, California had about 23.1 million registered voters: 45% Democrats, 25% Republicans, and 5.2 million registered without a party preference. Turnout in the 2021 gubernatorial recall election, which was also an off-year statewide contest, stood at about 58%. Over 4.74 million ballots had already been cast as of October 28.
The Associated Press will provide vote results and declare a winner for the redistricting ballot measure. Similar to the congressional primary, vote counting can be lengthy. In the 2024 presidential election, the AP first reported California results 12 minutes after polls closed, but election night tabulation ended with approximately 54% of votes counted.
AP’s Election Coverage Standards
It’s important to note the Associated Press’s rigorous standards for election reporting. The AP does not make projections and will only declare a winner when it determines there is no plausible scenario for trailing candidates to close the gap. If a race remains uncalled, the AP commits to covering all newsworthy developments, such as concessions or declarations of victory, while explicitly stating that a winner has not yet been declared and explaining the reasons why.
California does not have automatic recounts. Any registered voter may request one, but the requesting party is responsible for the cost. The AP may still declare a winner in such a race if the lead is deemed too substantial for a recount or legal challenge to alter the outcome.
