California’s NCAA Tournament contingent features three potential bracket-busters, each with a compelling story: a first-time participant, a program returning after 30 years, and a consistent contender seeking its first deep run.
The 2026 NCAA men’s basketball tournament isn’t just about the usual suspects from the power conferences. This year, the Golden State’s hope for March glory rests on three programs with distinct paths to the dance: California Baptist, Santa Clara, and Saint Mary’s. While UCLA grabs headlines as a top seed, it’s these three mid-majors who carry the true Cinderella potential, armed with star players, historic narratives, and matchups that bracketologists are already circling as upset alerts.
Santa Clara: A 30-Year Quest for Redemption
The last time Santa Clara danced, the Broncos’ roster wasn’t even born. Their 1996 NCAA Tournament appearance, led by a young Steve Nash, saw them upset No. 7 Maryland as a No. 10 seed before a second-round exit. Three decades later, history eerily repeats. Coach Herb Sendek has engineered a return, earning another No. 10 seed and a first-round date with No. 7 Kentucky.
What sets this Santa Clara team apart is its offensive firepower. Christian Hammond averages nearly 16 points per game, and the Broncos can pour in 80-plus with ease. Their two victories this season over fellow Cinderella hopeful Saint Mary’s prove their mettle against quality opposition. Analyst Blake Toppmeyer sees a path to another upset, writing that Santa Clara has the repertoire to break the Wildcats’ hearts, citing Sendek’s tournament experience having won games with three different schools Yahoo Sports.
The matchup is a classic contrast: a Kentucky program often reliant on “hero ball” against a disciplined, hot Broncos squad. Adding intrigue, Kentucky suffered a 35-point loss to Gonzaga earlier this season—a team Santa Clara fell to in the WCC Tournament final. Tip-off is Friday, March 20 at 12:15 p.m. ET.
California Baptist: The First-Time Sensation
In Riverside, California Baptist Lancers are making history with their first-ever NCAA Tournament bid. The WAC champions dominated their conference, finishing 25-8 overall and a perfect 15-0 at home. Their engine is Compton native Dominique Daniels Jr., a 5-foot-10 senior guard who averaged 23.2 points per game on 43.7% shooting, including multiple 40-point outings.
As a No. 13 seed, CBU draws No. 4 Kansas in San Diego—a mere 100 miles from campus, guaranteeing a massive road crowd. Owen O’Brien of CBS Sports slots the Lancers as a prime Cinderella candidate, noting they enter on a 15-2 tear and highlighting the historical trend of seven 13-seeds upsetting 4-seeds in the last seven tournaments CBS Sports. Daniels’ recent form—averaging 32 points over his last three games—gives CBU a legitimate scoring threat to challenge the Jayhawks’ defense.
Saint Mary’s Gaels: Fifth Time’s the Charm?
No program embodies the struggle of the “almost” quite like Saint Mary’s. The Gaels make their fifth consecutive NCAA appearance, yet each year since 2022 has ended in a first- or second-round exit. This season, they’re a No. 7 seed facing No. 10 Texas A&M—a team that closed the regular season poorly, losing seven of its last 11.
Adding complexity, Saint Mary’s lost twice to Santa Clara this year. Analyst Gene Menez of CBS Sports predicts another early knockout, arguing that despite the Gaels’ more efficient offense, Texas A&M’s faster tempo (70.5 possessions per 40 minutes vs. Saint Mary’s 29th-ranked 65.2) will dictate the game’s pace and ultimately favor the Aggies CBS Sports. The Gaels will need to slow the game to a crawl and execute their methodical offense flawlessly to avoid yet another premature exit.
The experts see California chaos coming
Across the board, analysts are zeroing in on these three teams as the most likely to trigger bracket chaos. VCU, Miami (Ohio), South Florida, Troy, Saint Louis, and High Point are also mentioned as potential Cinderellas, but the California trio carries the additional narrative weight of proximity and historical droughts. The combination of Santa Clara’s 30-year absence, CBU’s inaugural trip, and Saint Mary’s relentless but fruitless appearances creates a perfect storm for fan investment and unpredictable outcomes.
Why this year could be different
Every March, the term “Cinderella” gets overused. But these California teams have concrete reasons to believe. Santa Clara’s offense can score with anyone; CBU has a guards’ superstar in Daniels Jr. playing near home; Saint Mary’s tempo-controlled efficiency could suffocate a higher-seeded opponent that fails to adjust. The tournament structure also helps: all three are seeded to avoid the absolute top teams until at least the second weekend.
The psychological factor cannot be ignored. Santa Clara’s players are living in the shadow of a Steve Nash-led team that last won a tournament game before they were born. That absence creates a powerful motivator. California Baptist has nothing to lose as first-timers. Saint Mary’s has the burden of expectation but also the experience of five straight bids—a pressure that sometimes snaps in March.
California Love meets March Madness
From the Pac-12’s dissolution to the WCC’s rise, California basketball is having a moment. These three teams represent different paths to relevance: the mid-major power (Saint Mary’s), the upstart first-timer (CBU), and the historic program due for a breakthrough (Santa Clara). If even one advances to the tournament’s second weekend, it will validate years of development and fuel the narrative that California’s best basketball isn’t confined to the Pac-12’s former giants.
Fans should circle the matchups: Santa Clara vs. Kentucky on March 20, CBU vs. Kansas later that day, and Saint Mary’s vs. Texas A&M on March 19. Each game presents a clear upset opportunity grounded in personnel and tempo mismatches that analytics love.
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