Researchers are calling for urgent action and global policy reforms to address a grave health issue: the prediction of a widespread obesity pandemic by 2050.
A recent study revealed that obesity could affect more than half of adults and a third of children and teenagers globally in the next 25 years. The study estimated the prevalence of overweight and obesity among children and young adolescents (aged 5-14 years), older adolescents (aged 15-24 years), and adults (aged 25 and older) across 204 countries and territories. It examined data from 1990 to 2021, with forecasts extending to 2050.
The rate of obesity has more than doubled over the past three decades, affecting 2.11 billion adults and 493 million young people worldwide in 2021. If the world fails to act now, researchers warn, it will face an “unparalleled threat of premature disease and death.”
Another shocking revelation is that the burden of obesity will be disproportionately concentrated in certain regions. By 2050, experts forecast that one in three young people with obesity (approximately 130 million) will be living in just two areas: North Africa and the Middle East, and Latin America and the Caribbean. This alarming trend is predicted to have far-reaching health, economic, and societal consequences.
“While the largest number of adults with overweight and obesity are still expected in China (627 million), India (450 million), and the USA (214 million) in 2050, the number in sub-Saharan Africa is forecast to rise by over 250% to 522 million, driven by population growth,” a news release stated.
Estimates showed that around 25% of the world’s adult population with obesity in 2050 will be aged 65 or older, further straining already overburdened healthcare systems, particularly in low-income countries.
“The unprecedented global epidemic of overweight and obesity is a profound tragedy and a monumental societal failure,” said lead author Professor Emmanuela Gakidou from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), University of Washington.
The researchers observed that more recent generations are gaining weight faster than previous ones, with obesity occurring at earlier ages. This trend increases the risk of complications such as type 2 diabetes, high blood pressure, cardiovascular diseases, and multiple cancers at younger ages.
“But if we act now, preventing a complete transition to global obesity for children and adolescents is still possible,” said co-lead author Dr Jessica Kerr from Murdoch Children’s Research Institute in Australia.
