The Buffalo Bills have made a bold move by promoting offensive coordinator Joe Brady to head coach, betting on the architect of Josh Allen’s MVP season. However, history shows a troubling pattern for teams that promote from within, with Brady joining a long line of coaches who failed to replicate their coordinator-level success at the helm.
For the first time in a decade, someone other than Sean McDermott will be coaching the Buffalo Bills. The franchise opted for a familiar face in offensive coordinator Joe Brady, a move that signals a full-throated commitment to the high-powered offense that defined the team’s recent success.
Brady joined the Bills in the 2022 season as the quarterbacks coach following his time in Carolina as quarterbacks coach (2020-21). He became the team’s interim offensive coordinator in 2023, then took over full-time in 2024. With him calling the offense, Buffalo became one of the best offenses in the NFL. Quarterback Josh Allen won the NFL MVP with Brady calling the plays in 2024. In 2025, Buffalo was the No. 1 rushing team in the league and ranked fourth in yards and points on offense.
By advanced metrics, Brady oversaw one of the best offenses in the league. Buffalo was second league-wide in expected points added (EPA) per play in 2023 and 2024 before finishing tied for second in the metric in 2025.
But Buffalo opting to promote from within doesn’t historically align with success. Brady could join some unfortunate company with this move. Here’s a look back at the eight times NFL teams promoted from within for their head coach position and how that’s panned out since 2016, a period that includes both massive failures and a few promising starts.
NFL Coaches Promoted to Head Coach: A Mixed Bag
Brian Schottenheimer, Dallas Cowboys
- Record: 7-9-1
- Tenure: 2025-present
Dallas promoted Schottenheimer in 2025 after he spent the prior two years as the team’s offensive coordinator. Year one under him was a mixed bag; Dallas finished under 0.500 but had a top-10 scoring offense once again after dropping off without Dak Prescott in 2024. The Cowboys underperformed thanks to the worst defense by points in the NFL and third-worst by yards. There were promising signs in his first campaign, but the pressure is immense in Dallas.
Antonio Pierce, Las Vegas Raiders
- Record: 9-17
- Tenure: 2023 (interim)-2024
Las Vegas promoted the former NFL linebacker from linebackers coach to head coach in 2023 in Week 8. He finished the year 5-4 but failed to improve on that in 2024. Ultimately, the Raiders ended up 4-13 with one of the worst offenses in the league that year, and Pierce was fired after 26 games as head coach.
Todd Bowles, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Record: 35-33
- Tenure: 2022-present
Bowles’ second stint as a head coach came after three years on the Buccaneers’ staff as their defensive coordinator. He was a part of the 2020 championship-winning team. In four years as a head coach, Tampa Bay has won three NFC South titles but has just one postseason win. Two of his offensive coordinators have become head coaches elsewhere (Dave Canales in Carolina and Liam Coen in Jacksonville). The 2025 season saw a Bowles-coached defense finish below-average in points allowed for the first time since 2019.
Lovie Smith, Houston Texans
- Record: 3-13-1
- Tenure: 2022
Houston promoted Smith from defensive coordinator to head coach for the 2022 NFL season after firing David Culley in 2021. The team didn’t fare much better under Smith’s watch. They went from 4-13 to 3-13-1, with a bottom-four scoring offense and defense league-wide. He controversially played for a tie in his first game as Texans head coach. That lone year set the stage for DeMeco Ryans and C.J. Stroud’s arrival and the best three-year stretch in franchise history.
Freddie Kitchens, Cleveland Browns
- Record: 6-10
- Tenure: 2019
Cleveland fired coach Hue Jackson and offensive coordinator Todd Haley after a 2-5-1 start to the 2018 season. Interim coach Gregg Williams took over and promoted Kitchens to offensive coordinator. With Kitchens calling plays and Williams overseeing it all, the Browns went 5-3 in their final eight games. Kitchens was viewed as a coach who could get the most out of 2017 No. 1 overall pick Baker Mayfield. That didn’t happen in 2019, though. Cleveland finished 22nd in points and yards on offense and Kitchens was fired after his lone season at the helm.
Doug Marrone, Jacksonville Jaguars
- Record: 23-43
- Tenure: 2016 (interim)-2020
Marrone took over as interim head coach after Jacksonville fired Gus Bradley with two weeks to go in the 2016 season. Marrone was promoted to full-time head coach for the 2017 season. Jacksonville made a run to the 2017 AFC championship game behind a ferocious defense but never made the playoffs or had a winning record after that. Marrone lasted three more seasons in Jacksonville. He lost his final 15 games in 2020 to secure the No. 1 pick in the following season’s NFL Draft, which turned out to be quarterback Trevor Lawrence.
Dirk Koetter, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Record: 19-29
- Tenure: 2016-18
Koetter was on his third stop as an offensive coordinator when he got to Tampa Bay in 2015. The Buccaneers finished 6-10 under Lovie Smith but had a top-five offense by yards for the first time in franchise history. Tampa Bay fired Smith at the end of the 2015 season and promoted Koetter in his stead. He went 9-7 in his first season at the helm but followed that with back-to-back 5-11 seasons. Tampa Bay’s offense continued to produce yards at least but the defense fell to one of the worst units in the league.
Mike Mularkey, Tennessee Titans
- Record: 20-21
- Tenure: 2015 (interim)-17
Mularkey finished out the 2015 season after Tennessee fired Ken Whisenhunt. After going 2-7 in the final nine games and earning the No. 1 pick in the following draft, the Titans made the widely panned decision to promote Mularkey to full-time head coach for 2016. He led the Titans to their first winning season since 2011, finishing 9-7 in 2016. Tennessee missed the playoffs, though. In 2017, the Titans snuck into the playoffs with a Week 18 win and beat the Kansas City Chiefs in the wild-card game. That was the team’s first road playoff win since 2003. He parted ways with Tennessee after that season.
Ben McAdoo, New York Giants
- Record: 13-15
- Tenure: 2016-17
McAdoo coached up a top-eight offense as a coordinator in 2015. When Tom Coughlin stepped down after the season, McAdoo was named his successor. McAdoo led the team to an 11-5 record and its first playoff berth since the Giants won the Super Bowl in 2011. But that was built on the No. 2 scoring defense in the league, not the No. 26-ranked scoring offense. New York was bounced in the first round of the playoffs that year. After a 2-10 start in 2017, New York fired him.
The data paints a clear picture: while there have been a few modest successes, the majority of coaches promoted from within have struggled to find the same level of success they had as coordinators. The pressure is immense, and the transition is rarely smooth. Brady’s success will depend on whether he can manage the full scope of an NFL franchise, from player personnel to in-game adjustments on both sides of the ball, a task that goes far beyond calling plays for an MVP quarterback.
For Bills fans, the hope is that Brady’s offensive genius is the catalyst that finally pushes the team over the top and ends their championship drought. The history of the NFL, however, suggests the path is fraught with peril.
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