Tampa Bay Buccaneers are in a precarious playoff position. They beat the Panthers 16-14 but need the Saints to beat the Falcons in Week 18 to avoid a three-way tie and secure a postseason berth as the NFC’s No. 4 seed.
Are the Buccaneers in the playoffs?
Not yet. The Buccaneers beat the Panthers in Week 18, but they will still need help to make the postseason. They need the Falcons to lose to the Saints to avoid a three-way tie atop the NFC South, which would allow the Panthers to backdoor their way into the playoffs.
Buccaneers playoff chances
The Buccaneers have an estimated 40% chance to make the playoffs, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. That was up from the 28% chance they had entering their Jan. 3 clash with the Panthers.
The Buccaneers were originally expected to have closer to a 50-50 chance to make the playoffs and a win-and-in scenario in Week 18. However, the Falcons’ win over the Rams on “Monday Night Football” in Week 17 complicated Tampa Bay’s path to a postseason berth.
In short, Tampa Bay can’t simply win and get into the postseason. The Buccaneers need to win and see the Falcons lose (or tie) in Week 18 to win the NFC South.
Buccaneers playoff scenarios
The Buccaneers can only get into the playoffs by winning the NFC South. Here’s a look at what it will take for Tampa Bay to win the division for a fourth consecutive season:
- Buccaneers win vs. Panthers AND
- Falcons lose or tie against Saints
The Buccaneers achieved the first result by beating the Panthers 16-14 on Jan. 3. Now, they will turn their attention to the Falcons-Saints game and will be placed in the unusual position of rooting for New Orleans, one of their top rivals.
If New Orleans can deliver a victory or ensure the game ends in a tie, Tampa Bay would make it into the 2025 postseason as the NFC’s No. 4 seed. They would then play either the Seattle Seahawks, San Francisco 49ers or Los Angeles Rams in the wild-card round, pending the results of the two NFC West contests in Week 18.
But if Atlanta wins, the Buccaneers will find themselves outside of the NFC playoff picture.
NFC South standings
The Buccaneers are tied with Panthers in the NFC South after beating them in Week 18. Below is a full look at the divisional standings:
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9)
- Carolina Panthers (8-9)
- Atlanta Falcons (7-9)
- New Orleans Saints (6-10)
The Buccaneers and Panthers split their season series and have an identical divisional record of 3-3. In a two-way tie between the clubs, Tampa Bay would have the advantage in the “common games” tiebreaker, allowing the team to win the NFC South.
However, if the Falcons win, that would create a three-way tie atop the NFC South. The Panthers would emerge victorious from that tiebreaker, as the team would have a 3-1 record in games played among the three clubs, the best among the group.
That’s why the Buccaneers need help from the rival Saints to help potentially put them into the postseason.
Panthers remaining schedule
The Panthers have finished their 2025 NFL regular season schedule. They have finished the year with an 8-9 record.
Buccaneers remaining schedule
The Buccaneers are also done with their regular season schedule. They too have finished with an 8-9 record.
Falcons remaining schedule
The Falcons don’t play until Sunday, Jan. 4, so Buccaneers fans will have to wait to see the result of Atlanta’s final game. Below is a look at the Falcons’ matchup:
- Week 18: vs. New Orleans Saints (6-10)
NFL playoff picture
Here’s how the AFC and NFC stack up entering Week 18:
AFC
- Denver Broncos (13-3, AFC West winners)*
- New England Patriots (13-3, AFC East winners)*
- Jacksonville Jaguars (12-4, AFC South leaders)*
- Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7, AFC North leaders)
- Houston Texans (11-5, wild card No. 1)*
- Los Angeles Chargers (11-5, wild card No. 2)*
- Buffalo Bills (11-5, wild card No. 3)*
In the hunt: Baltimore Ravens (8-8)
NFC
- Seattle Seahawks (13-3, NFC West leaders)*
- Chicago Bears (11-5, NFC North winners)*
- Philadelphia Eagles (11-5, NFC East winners)*
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9, NFC South leaders)
- San Francisco 49ers (12-4, wild card No. 1)*
- Los Angeles Rams (11-5, wild card No. 2)*
- Green Bay Packers (9-6-1, wild card No. 3)*
In the hunt: Carolina Panthers (8-9)
* Denotes team that has clinched a playoff berth.
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