The Trump administration warned Monday that the risk of blackouts could be 100 times greater by the end of the decade, as the race to develop artificial intelligence (AI) and the push to reshore manufacturing strain the electrical grid.
In a new report, the Department of Energy noted that 104 gigawatts of power capacity are set to be retired by 2030.
Even if the U.S. brings online 209 gigawatts within the next six years as planned, the average annual outage time would increase from about 8 hours per year to more than 800 hours per year, according to the report.
Data centers, which help power AI training and usage, are expected to add anywhere from 35 gigawatts to 108 gigawatts in load growth to the grid by the end of the decade.
While eliminating the planned plant retirements would reduce the risk of blackouts, the potential for outages would still be 34 times greater by 2030, the report found.
Energy Secretary Chris Wright used the findings to underscore the need to maintain current power sources, such as coal and natural gas, aligning with President Trump’s embrace of nonrenewable energy.
“This report affirms what we already know: The United States cannot afford to continue down the unstable and dangerous path of energy subtraction previous leaders pursued, forcing the closure of baseload power sources like coal and natural gas,” Wright said in a statement.
“In the coming years, America’s reindustrialization and the AI race will require a significantly larger supply of around-the-clock, reliable, and uninterrupted power,” he added. “President Trump’s administration is committed to advancing a strategy of energy addition, and supporting all forms of energy that are affordable, reliable, and secure.”
However, some pushed back on the Department of Energy’s findings.
Advanced Energy United, a trade group representing the advanced energy industry, suggested the report may overstate the risks of blackouts and undervalue resources like wind, solar and battery storage.
“We are working quickly to dig into the numbers to unpack how [Energy Department] reached its conclusions, but it’s troubling that the report was not subject to public input and scrutiny,” Caitlin Marquis, managing director at Advanced Energy United, said in a statement.
She noted that the report, which was produced in response to an April executive order, will be used to help identify which power plants are retained.
“If the analysis is overly pessimistic about advanced energy technologies and the future of the grid, consumers will end up paying too much for resources we no longer need,” Marquis added.
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