Major U.S. oil companies remain skeptical about investing in Venezuela, citing unresolved legal, financial, and security risks, despite President Trump’s aggressive push to revive the country’s oil sector after the capture of Nicolás Maduro.
The Capture of Maduro and Trump’s Oil Ambitions
On January 3, 2026, the U.S. military executed a bold operation, capturing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife in Caracas. The move was part of a broader strategy to assert control over Venezuela’s vast oil reserves, estimated between 30 billion and 50 billion barrels. President Donald Trump quickly convened a meeting with executives from 17 major oil companies on January 9, urging them to invest in upgrading Venezuela’s aging oil infrastructure.
Trump’s vision is clear: U.S. companies would modernize Venezuela’s oil sector, with profits shared between the companies, the U.S., and Venezuela. “We have to get them to invest, and then we have to get their money back as quickly as we can,” Trump stated, outlining a plan to “divvy it all up” once investments are recouped.
Big Oil’s Skepticism: A History of Seized Assets
Despite Trump’s enthusiasm, oil executives remain cautious. ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods highlighted the company’s troubled history in Venezuela, where assets were seized twice since the 1940s. “To re-enter a third time would require some pretty significant changes,” Woods emphasized, calling for “durable investment protections” and reforms to Venezuela’s hydrocarbon laws.
Woods’ concerns reflect broader industry skepticism. Harold Hamm, CEO of Continental Resources, acknowledged Venezuela’s potential but noted its “challenges,” stating, “You go in with your eyes open.” Meanwhile, Ryan Lance of ConocoPhillips stressed the need for debt restructuring, particularly through the EXIM Bank, to make investments viable.
Chevron: The Outlier with a Foothold
The only U.S. company currently operating in Venezuela, Chevron, offers a glimmer of optimism. With 3,000 employees already in the country, Chevron has increased production from 40,000 to 240,000 barrels per day over the past five years. Mark Nelson, Chevron’s vice chairman, expressed confidence in doubling production “effective immediately,” citing the company’s existing infrastructure as a “definite advantage.”
However, even Chevron’s presence doesn’t guarantee broader industry participation. The company’s success is built on years of navigating Venezuela’s complex political and economic landscape—a feat few competitors are eager to replicate without assurances.
The Risks: Legal, Financial, and Geopolitical
Industry experts warn that Venezuela remains “uninvestable” without sweeping reforms. Key concerns include:
- Legal Protections: Oil companies demand guarantees against asset seizures and contract breaches.
- Debt Restructuring: Venezuela’s existing debt must be addressed to avoid financial pitfalls for investors.
- Security: The volatile political climate and potential for conflict deter long-term commitments.
- Infrastructure: Decades of underinvestment have left Venezuela’s oil sector in disrepair, requiring billions in upgrades.
Jesse Lee, a clean energy advocate and former Biden advisor, echoed these concerns, stating, “I don’t see the circumstances under which any industry is going to pour a hundred billion dollars into a country where for all they know some war is going to break out any day.”
Trump’s Proposal: A “Simple” Formula
Trump’s plan hinges on a straightforward profit-sharing model: oil companies invest in infrastructure, recoup their costs, and then split revenues with the U.S. and Venezuela. “I think the formula is simple,” Trump said. “We start with a brand-new plate.”
Yet, the devil is in the details. The administration has promised “security guarantees” to protect companies “physically safe, in addition to financially safe.” However, executives remain unconvinced without concrete legal frameworks and debt solutions.
What’s Next for Venezuela’s Oil Sector?
The standoff between Trump’s ambitions and Big Oil’s caution leaves Venezuela’s future uncertain. While Chevron’s continued operations offer a template for success, broader industry participation hinges on:
- Legal reforms to protect foreign investments.
- Debt restructuring to ease financial burdens.
- Security assurances to mitigate geopolitical risks.
- Infrastructure upgrades to modernize oil production.
Until these conditions are met, Venezuela’s oil—despite its vast potential—will remain largely untapped by U.S. companies. As Woods succinctly put it, “There has to be durable investment protections.”
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