Ben Johnson’s first season delivered a division crown and a playoff win, yet he’s already preaching “square one” while Ryan Poles faces the hardest part of a rebuild—deciding who stays from a 12-win roster loaded with expiring contracts and injured rookies.
Six days removed from an overtime heart-breaker against Matthew Stafford’s Rams, Ben Johnson stood in front of the same Halas Hall media crowd that once questioned whether a 38-year-old first-time head coach could rescue a 5–12 laughingstock. He opened his 2026 post-mortem with a warning soaked in coach-speak clarity: “There is no building off of this. We go back to square one.”
Chicago’s 12–6 record, NFC North title, and wild-card comeback against Green Bay are now museum pieces. Johnson’s logic is cold but strategic—history shows teams that treat a surprise playoff run as proof-of-arrival regress the next fall. The Bears finished 2025 29th in total defense and 27th against the run; Johnson refuses to let offensive fireworks mask those cracks.
Why the Bears really start over—cap cliffs, aging stars, and a torn rookie LT
General manager Ryan Poles enters his fourth offseason with a contender for the first time, yet the math is brutal. Kevin Byard (32, NFL-best seven INTs) and Jaquan Brisker are both unrestricted free agents. Re-signing Byard alone could cost $14–16 million APY against a 2026 cap projected flat at $275 million. Poles already has $218 million on the books, leaving little wiggle before rookiePool and practice-squad costs.
Left tackle Ozzy Trapilo, the second-round steal who stabilized Caleb Williams’ blind side, tore his patellar tendon versus Green Bay. Recovery timetables for that injury routinely spill into November. Poles admitted the staff has already told Trapilo to expect a “deep into next season” absence, forcing Chicago either to re-sign veteran Larry Borom cheap or spend a Day-1 pick on another tackle.
Caleb Williams set franchise records—now the pressure spikes
Williams’ 4,489 passing yards shattered Jay Cutler’s 2014 mark, and his 31 touchdown passes tied Erik Kramer’s single-season high. Johnson, once the NFL’s hottest coordinator candidate, doubled down: “I’m Caleb Williams’ No. 1 believer.” But belief will be tested in Year 3. NFL defenses now have a full season of Williams’ tendencies—his 7.2 air-yards-per-attempt ranked sixth, but his 9.1% sack-rate under pressure crept toward the league’s bottom third.
The front office must decide whether to exercise the fifth-year option by next May, making 2026 a prove-it campaign wrapped inside a championship window. Expect Johnson to demand more intermediate rhythm throws and a revitalized ground game to keep Williams from repeat shoulder strains that flared in December.
Draft capital still loaded—Poles can be aggressive
Even after last year’s rookie windfall, Chicago owns:
- its own first-, second- and third-round picks in 2026
- an extra fourth from the 2024 Claypool deal
- an estimated $9.4 million in 2025 rollover space if the Saints pick (currently No. 19) conveys
That flexibility allows Poles to chase an edge rusher—Chicago managed only 35 sacks, tied for 22nd—or package 2026 capital to move up for a blue-chip defender such as Texas DT Alfred Collins or Georgia Specter Malaki Starks.
Johnson’s culture card: keep the locker-room hungry
Internal metrics show the 2025 Bears played 99 total snaps in Week 18 with nothing to gain seed-wise, a rarity for a team locked into the 3-seed. Johnson demanded full-speed reps, selling the idea that habits, not standings, decide January outcomes. Veterans bought in—rookie seventh-rounder Kyle Monangai finished with 783 rushing yards while D’Andre Swift handled pass-pro, a timeshare Johnson will replicate.
But the coach’s biggest gamble is public humility. By framing 12 wins as “square one,” Johnson shields younger players from the hype cyclone that buried the 2019 Browns and 2022 Jets after flash-in-the-pan surges.
Immediate dominoes—who stays, who walks, who gets extended
- Kevin Byard—Market comps: Jessie Bates (4 yr/$64 M). Verdict: negotiate before free agency opens; if he seeks $17 M+, let him test and pivot to Richie Grant on a prove-it deal.
- Jaquan Brisker—Injury history (three concussions) lowers tag value. Aim for three-year, $30 M with injury triggers.
- D’Andre Swift—Averaged 4.7 YPC in final six games. Offer 2 yr/$10 M or draft another back on Day 3.
- Edge room—Montez Sweat is locked in; opposite spot open. Target free-agent tier: Bryce Huff (Jets) or trade for Maxx Crosby if Raiders reset.
Fan angle: why “square one” is exactly the right rally cry
Chicago hasn’t posted back-to-back winning seasons since 2005–06. Johnson’s refusal to romanticize 2025 is a direct antidote to the organizational complacency that followed the Lovie Smith era. Bears Twitter can meme the mantra—#BackToSquareOne—but inside Halas Hall it’s a shield against ticket-price inflation, talk-show crowning, and the schedule-release euphoria that buries franchises every summer.
Bottom line: Johnson and Poles flipped a 5-win roster into a division champ faster than any Bears rebuild since 2001. Now they must prove the leap wasn’t a mirage. If Caleb Williams levels up, Trapilo returns mid-season, and Poles nails one more defensive blue-chip, Chicago’s “square one” could be the 1-seed next January. Miss on any of those, and the cycle of quarterback-hope-to-heartbreak spins again—only this time the fan base won’t grant another mulligan.
Stay locked to onlytrustedinfo.com for the fastest roster forecasts, combine buzz, and instant draft-grade analysis—because the next Bears breakthrough won’t wait for tomorrow’s paper.
