(The Center Square) – Popular two-term governor opts to run for the U.S. Senate and is a slam dunk to win.
Not so fast, and no matter the party. Former North Carolina Gov. Jim Hunt can attest to that.
Roy Cooper, a Democrat unbeaten in statewide elections six times, last week said he would run to succeed Republican two-term Sen. Thom Tillis. Tillis said June 29 he would not seek reelection, and Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley has stepped forward in the race with a rousing endorsement from second-term President Donald Trump.
North Carolina’s historical patterns yield as much intrigue as the race’s expense forecast of $500 million to $750 million. The state has picked just three Republicans as governor since 1900. Yet federally, it has backed only two Democrat for president in 60 years and has sent only four Democrats to the U.S. Senate in 50 years. None won a second term.
Senate races in the state have gone to Republicans five consecutive times the last 15 years, and seven of eight this century.
Cooper will be the sixth former governor of the state to try for the U.S. Senate. One from each major party has lost, and three Democrats have been successful.
Hunt, arguably a patriarch of the state party, broke ground as the first two-term governor and remains the only politician to do it twice (1977-85, 1993-2001). In between, he fell to incumbent Republican Sen. Jesse Helms in a mudslinging 1984 race.
Democrat Terry Sanford was 21 years out of the governor’s mansion when he successfully won in 1986, defeating Republican incumbent James Broyhill. He had been appointed following the death of Sen. John East. Sanford is one of two Democrats in the state to win a midterm in the last half century; John Edwards in 1998 was the last.
The last governor in the state to try for the Senate was Pat McCrory in 2022. He was five years removed from a reelection loss to Cooper and was turned back in the primary by now-Sen. Ted Budd.
Democrats Kerr Scott in 1954 and Melville Broughton in 1948 are the state’s other governors who won congressional seats after being governor.
The 346 elections for U.S. Senate since 1914 inclusive of 335 incumbent or former state governors has produced 126 wins for the governors, 116 losses and 124 primary defeats, Ballotpedia says. Since 1980, 29 governors have won, 26 have lost and 13 lost in primaries.
Cooper, thus far, is the only sitting or former governor making the bid for the 2026 cycle. There are 35 races, and former Louisiana Gov. John Bel Edwards and Maine Gov. Janet Mills – both Democrats – are in speculation for their respective states.
Last November included two. West Virginia Republican Jim Justice was a winner and Maryland Republican Larry Hogan was defeated.
