Andreessen Horowitz predicts 2026 will be the year multimodal AI — especially video and image models — reshapes the consumer race, with Gemini potentially catching up to ChatGPT while startups must innovate around text-only models.
The AI landscape is evolving rapidly, and four partners at venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz believe 2026 will mark a turning point where visual and interactive capabilities become decisive factors. Their insights, drawn from an episode of the firm’s podcast aired December 29, 2025, offer a clear-eyed view of what could disrupt the current dominance of ChatGPT.
Justine Moore, an investment partner, argued that Gemini’s new video and image models may give it a significant edge over ChatGPT because “there’s always nearly infinite demand” for those features among both professionals and everyday users. She noted how viral trends often emerge around breakthroughs in multimodal AI, driving user adoption and shifting market dynamics.
Moore also emphasized that Gemini’s ability to overcome its lack of name recognition hinges on maintaining momentum. If the model continues to deliver compelling visual experiences, it could narrow or even close the gap with ChatGPT’s massive user base.
Multimodality Is the Real Differentiator
While image and video capabilities are important, Moore highlighted that true innovation lies in multimodality — the ability for AI models to seamlessly process text, images, and audio simultaneously. She described this as the next frontier, noting that “everything” is becoming multimodal.
Imagine putting a video into Gemini and getting back related images or editing instructions — or entering a text prompt to modify a video directly. Such capabilities would revolutionize industries like design, where combining visuals and text creatively is standard practice.
Apps Could Define ChatGPT’s Next Phase
Olivia Moore, another partner, suggested that ChatGPT’s success hinges on whether its internal app store becomes a major force. The launch included partnerships with Spotify and Zillow, but the real test lies in developer adoption.
Anish Acharya, a partner, underscored the importance of ChatGPT’s software development kit (SDK), which enables developers to build custom apps. This infrastructure could allow ChatGPT to function more like an app store — integrating tools across consumer and enterprise markets.
Startups Must Avoid Text-Only Models
Bryan Kim, a partner, warned that startups aiming to compete should avoid focusing solely on text-in, text-out models, as they’re already saturated. Instead, he urged founders to identify unique angles to capture users.
“You have to be creative around what is the angle that you can go steal people away from?” Kim said. This suggests that successful startups in 2026 will likely target niche audiences or specialized use cases — such as technical users who prefer Claude’s precision — rather than competing head-to-head with giants.
Winner-Takes-All Dynamics Emerging
Olivia Moore observed early signs that the LLM assistant market is trending toward winner-takes-all dynamics. While ChatGPT commands between 800 and 900 million weekly active users, Gemini has reached approximately 35% of that scale on web platforms and 40% on mobile.
Other models like Claude hold only 8–10% of the market share, according to Moore. Yet she pointed out that ChatGPT Enterprise usage surged eightfold in 2025, signaling growing business adoption that could eventually feed back into consumer growth.
“If we’re entering a world now where people have to use ChatGPT for their company or as part of their work, that could really translate into consumer usage,” Moore added.
Despite ChatGPT’s lead, Moore cautioned that things are changing quickly. Gemini is gaining desktop users faster than ChatGPT, and models like Claude are targeting specific audiences — including highly technical users — to carve out their own space.
The key takeaway? In 2026, the battle won’t just be about raw processing power or API availability — it will be about multimodal capability, ecosystem integration, and the ability to create unique value propositions that differentiate startups from established players.
For developers building apps, the SDK’s potential could unlock new possibilities beyond chatbots — imagine voice-driven interfaces, video-editing assistants, or dynamic content generators tailored to specific verticals.
For consumers, expect more intuitive interactions with AI that blend visual, textual, and auditory inputs — making AI feel less like a tool and more like a collaborative partner.
Readers seeking deeper context on Gemini’s capabilities can refer to Gemini 3’s official release details. For analysis on multimodal AI’s impact, see multimodality’s emerging role.
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