Santa Clara freshman Allen Graves, the West Coast Conference’s Rookie and Sixth Man of the Year, is projected to be selected 24th overall by the Denver Nuggets in the 2026 NBA Draft, based on USA TODAY’s mock draft utilizing Tankathlon’s lottery model.
In a draft cycle often dominated by talk of Kentucky and Duke, Santa Clara’s Allen Graves is rewriting the narrative. The 19-year-old forward hasn’t just contributed for the Broncos—he’s dominated, earning both WCC Rookie of the Year and Sixth Man of the Year in his freshman season. This rare double highlights a player so impactful that he reshapes games off the bench while still starting on most nights.
The defining moment came on February 7 against Washington State, when Graves posted a scintillating 30 points, 13 rebounds, four assists, and two steals. That wasn’t an isolated outburst; it was a microcosm of the versatility that has draft takers intrigued. Advanced metrics referenced by USA TODAY show Graves in the 99th percentile nationally in Win Shares per 40 minutes, Wins Above Replacement Player, and Player Efficiency Rating. Meanwhile, Bart Torvik’s box plus-minus data reveals that among players under 21, only Cameron Boozer—the son of NBA legend Carlos Boozer—ranks higher.
This elite efficiency translates directly to the court. Graves averages 11.6 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 1.8 assists per game, with remarkably efficient shooting splits: 51.7% from the field and 41.6% from three-point range. For a 6-foot-8 forward, that combination of volume and accuracy from deep is precisely what NBA teams covet in modern wings.
The Denver Nuggets’ Strategic Fit
USA TODAY’s mock draft currently slots Graves at pick No. 24, landing with the Denver Nuggets. The Nuggets hold two first-round selections—No. 23 and No. 45 (via Atlanta)—giving them the assets to target a high-floor prospect like Graves without sacrificing a lottery pick. While Denver’s core of Nikola Jokić and Jamal Murray remains intact, adding a young, cost-controlled forward with Graves’ shooting and rebounding provides insurance against future roster churn.
The selection is predicated on the Tankathlon lottery projection, which simulates draft odds based on team records. This model currently has Denver in position to make the 24th pick, aligning with Graves’ projected range. The fit is logical: Graves stretches defenses, allowing Jokić more operating space, and his defensive rebounding aids a team that often sacrifices size on the perimeter.
Why Graves Is the Draft’s Best Kept Secret
Despite the metrics, Graves doesn’t dominate draft conversations because he plays for Santa Clara, a program that hasn’t produced a first-round pick since 2016. This “mid-major stigma” creates value: teams may overlook him in favor of higher-profile names from power conferences, allowing a savvy franchise like Denver to snag a player with top-20 talent at the end of the first round.
His age—he won’t turn 20 until after the draft—means Graves has significant runway for growth. Unlike older one-and-done prospects, he brings both immediate efficiency and long-term upside. For a Nuggets team that has successfully developed players like Michael Porter Jr., this could be another low-risk, high-reward selection.
As the June draft approaches, expect Graves’ stock to rise as team workouts showcase his character and basketball IQ. But for now, he represents the epitome of a stealth first-rounder: a player whose production screams “lottery” yet remains available at the 24th pick due to circumstances beyond his control.
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