U.S. consumer sentiment swooned in March to a more than two-year low, with a preliminary gauge released by the University of Michigan proving far weaker than economists had expected.
The preliminary results show the index fell to 57.9, compared with 64.7 a month ago, according to the Friday report. The reading marks the lowest level since November of 2022, researchers that compile the data said. Economists had expected consumer confidence to hold relatively steady, according to financial-data company FactSet.
The results are “a reflection of the Great Uncertainty around the economic policies put forward by the Trump administration,” commented Carl Weinberg at High Frequency Economics. “Consumer spending may become restrained by caution until the Trump economic agenda becomes clear.”
The White House’s “policy uncertainty has tanked consumer sentiment to its lowest level since inflation peaked more than two years ago, sent the stock market into correction territory and led forecasters to materially raise recession probabilities,” commented Daniel Hornung, former deputy director of the National Economic Council.
More Americans expressing concern
Consumers anticipate inflation climbing at an annual rate of 4.9% during the next year, their highest expectations since 2022. While inflation abated slightly in February, more Americans are expressing concerns about the economic impact of President Trump’s ongoing trade wars, as tariffs are import taxes paid by companies such as Walmart and Target that are often passed onto consumers through higher prices.
“The klaxon of layoff headlines, a falling stock market and tariff fears were a big blow to consumer confidence in early March,” said Bill Adams, chief economist for Comerica Bank, in an email. “The pullback in confidence is becoming a real threat to consumer spending which, as is often repeated, accounts for two thirds of U.S. economic activity.”
Consumers are also now expecting elevated inflation to be a long-term issue, saying they expect prices will increase at an annual clip of 3.9% during the next five to 10 years, the biggest month-over-month jump since 1993, the survey found. That’s far higher than the Federal Reserve’s inflation goal of driving the annual rate down to 2%.
