The S&P 500 (^GSPC) just had its best May in 35 years as President Trump’s rollback of tariffs boosted stocks.
In May, the S&P 500 rose more than 6%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) added 4%. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) led the gains, rising nearly 10%.
The May jobs report will headline the first week of June. Fresh readings on job openings and wage data, as well as manufacturing and services activity, will also be in focus for investors.
In corporate news, quarterly results from CrowdStrike (CRWD), Broadcom (AVGO), DocuSign (DOCU), and Lululemon (LULU) will lead an otherwise subdued slate of earnings on the docket.
No tariff turnoff
A US trade court decision that put at least a temporary pause on many of President Trump’s wide-ranging tariffs late Wednesday night isn’t cooling Wall Street’s fears over policy uncertainty. A day later, an appeals court reinstated the tariffs.
The back-and-forth illustrates why investors remain concerned about trade policy uncertainty.
“Investors were hoping that tariff negotiations would largely be ironed out in the next couple of months, leaving the Administration free to focus far more on growth-positive policy, including deregulation,” Barclays global chairman of research Ajay Rajadhyaksha wrote prior to the appeals court decision. “At least optically, that entire process is now pushed back a few months.”
And perhaps most importantly, it hasn’t stopped the administration from threatening more tariffs. Stocks fell on Friday as President Trump posted on Truth Social that China has “TOTALLY VIOLATED ITS AGREEMENT WITH US.”
Later in the afternoon on Friday, Bloomberg reported the US is planning wider China tech sanctions, sending stocks lower.
“As we’ve seen this morning with the Truth Social post that came out, tariffs aren’t completely out of the headlines yet,” Ritholtz Wealth Management chief market strategist Callie Cox told Yahoo Finance Friday morning. “I think heading into this summer, especially after such a strong bounce [higher in the market], it makes a lot of sense to be cautious.”
A look at labor
Signs of an economic slowdown have yet to emerge in labor market data. Economists expect that trend to continue with the release of the May jobs report on Friday.
The report is expected to show 130,000 nonfarm payroll jobs were added to the US economy last month while unemployment held steady at 4.2%, according to data from Bloomberg. In April, the US economy added 177,000 jobs while the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%.
“May’s employment report will offer the first real look at how the labor market is faring under a rapidly changing trade environment,” Wells Fargo’s team of economists led by Jay Bryson wrote in a note to clients on Friday. “We suspect it will show the cloudier outlook starting to weigh on hiring, with payroll growth moderating to 125K in May.”
Still ‘Magnificent’
First quarter earnings season is effectively over, with 98% of the S&P 500 done reporting. The index is pacing for earnings growth of 13.3% for the quarter, once again led by the “Magnificent Seven” tech stocks, according to FactSet data. The cohort of Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOGL, GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META), Tesla (TSLA), and Nvidia (NVDA) grew earnings by 27.7% compared to the same quarter a year ago, well above the 9.4% seen from the other 493 members of the index.
The Big Tech companies surprised analysts more too. In aggregate, Magnificent Seven earnings growth beat Wall Street’s estimates by 11.7%, compared to the 4.6% beat for the other 493 companies.
Citi US equity strategist Drew Pettit told Yahoo Finance that this helps explain why the Magnificent Seven have been outperforming other stocks amid the run higher in the market over the past month. The Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS) has risen more than 11% over the past month, far outpacing the S&P 500’s 5.5%.
“With the tariff concern and some of the macro hesitancy, like investment hesitancy and buying hesitancy, you’re back to growth,” Pettit said. “When valuations aren’t cheap versus history for anything, might as well go to the place that’s got some [earnings] upside.”
Consider that to be the case until the recent rise in bond yields subsides, he said.
Weekly Calendar
Monday
Earnings: The Campbell’s Company (CPB)
Economic data: S&P Global US manufacturing PMI, May final (52.3 expected, 52.3 prior); ISM manufacturing, May (49.5 expected, 48.7 prior); ISM prices paid, May (69.8 prior); Construction spending month-over-month, April (+0.3% expected, -0.5% prior)
Tuesday
Earnings: Asana (ASAN), CrowdStrike (CRWD), Dollar General (DG), Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE), Nio (NIO), Ollie’s (OLLI), Signet Jewelers (SIG)
Economic data: JOLTS Job Openings, March (7.07 million expected, 7.19 previously); Factory Orders, April (-3.1% expected, +3.4% prior); Durable goods orders, April final (-6.3% expected, -6.3% prior); Capital goods orders nondefense excluding air, April final (-1.3% prior); Capital goods shipments nondefense excluding air, April final (-0.1% prior)
Wednesday
Earnings: ChargePoint (CHPT), Dollar Tree (DLTR), Five Below (FIVE), MongoDB (MDB)
Economic data: MBA Mortgage Applications, week ending May 30 (-1.2% previously); ADP employment change, May (110,000 expected, 62,000 expected); S&P Global US services PMI, May final (52.3 expected, 52.3 prior); S&P Global US Composite PMI, May final (52.1 prior); ISM Services index, May (52 expected, 51.6 prior); Federal Reserve Beige Book released
Thursday
Earnings: Broadcom (AVGO), DocuSign (DOCU), Lululemon (LULU), Cracker Barrel (CBRL), Duluth Trading (DLTH), Land’s End (LE), Petco (WOOF), Rubrik (RBRK), Victoria’s Secret (VSCO)
Economic data: Initial jobless claims week ending May 31 (240,000 prior); Continuing claims week ending May 24 (1.91 million prior); Challenger job cuts year-over-year, May (+62.7% prior); Nonfarm productivity, first quarter final (-0.8% expected, -0.8% prior); Unit labor costs, first quarter final (+5.7% expected, +5.7% prior)
Friday
Earnings: No notable earnings releases.
Economic data: Nonfarm payrolls, May (+130,000 expected, +177,000 previously); Unemployment rate, May (4.2% expected, 4.2% previously); Average hourly earnings, month over month, May (+0.3% expected, +0.2% previously); Average hourly earnings, year over year, May (+3.7% expected, +3.8% previously); Average weekly hours worked, May (34.4 expected, 34.4 previously); Labor force participation rate, May (62.6% previously)
Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.
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