The fate of Google’s search empire is now up to a judge

Google’s (GOOG, GOOGL) massive search empire faces its largest existential threat as US District Judge Amit Mehta prepares to decide whether to splinter the company’s most lucrative business as part of its antitrust trial.

Mehta heard closing arguments from both Google and the Department of Justice (DOJ) in the remedies phase of the antitrust case, during which the sides argued against and for dramatic changes to the company, respectively.

The Justice Department prevailed in the initial liability phase of the trial, with Mehta finding that Google violated antitrust laws in the markets for “general search” and “general search text” ads, advertisements that appear at the top of search results pages.

During the remedy phase, the DOJ argued that Mehta should force Google to sell off its Chrome browser, share its search data with rivals, and kill its exclusivity agreements that secure Google as the default search engine on mobile devices and web browsers.

Google has already said it will appeal the initial finding that it operates as an illegal monopoly, but the process could take years before the company and the DOJ reach a final resolution.

Google still has to contend with another antitrust trial that has reached the remedies phase related to its online advertising technology business. US District Court Judge Leonie Brinkema also found Google liable in that case, which the Justice Department brought against the company, in April.

In that case, Brinkema found that the DOJ proved Google held and abused its monopoly power in the markets for publisher ad servers and ad exchanges for open-web display advertising. But Brinkema found that the DOJ failed to establish a relevant market for advertising networks, the third leg in the department’s case against Google.

If Mehta agrees with the DOJ’s proposals, Google would have to fundamentally change much of its current search business. Its Chrome browser is the most popular web browser in the world, thanks to its inclusion in Android phones, which make up the majority of smartphones globally.

Losing Chrome, which uses Google as its default search engine, could cut Google off from its users. Forcing the company to end its exclusivity contracts with other tech firms would also impact Google and its partners.

Google, for example, has an agreement with Apple (AAPL) that sees Google pay Apple $20 billion a year in exchange for Apple using Google as the default search engine in its Safari browser.

In 2024, Apple reported full-year Services revenue of $96.1 billion. Slashing $20 billion from that would take a significant chunk out of Apple’s bottom line.

Google has argued that the DOJ’s recommended remedies go too far and that they’ll only help competitors like Microsoft and its Bing search engine while hurting device makers, forcing them to raise prices for consumers.

Lingering in the background is the continued evolution of generative AI and its impact on the search market. The DOJ initially filed its suit in 2020, three years before ChatGPT upended the tech industry, creating new competitors like ChatGPT Search, Perplexity, and Anthropic’s own Claude search bot.

During the search antitrust trial, Apple senior vice president of services Eddy Cue said search queries in Apple’s Safari browser were down for the first time in April, adding that he believed users were moving their queries to generative AI apps.

Google, however, disputed the claim, saying that it continues to see growth across its products, including on iOS devices. The company has also released its own competing generative AI offerings, including AI Overviews, which appear at the top of its search results page, and AI Mode, a new feature similar to ChatGPT that allows users to interact with Google via a chatbot interface.

Mehta is expected to provide his findings in the remedies hearing in August. In the meantime, Google also has to prepare for the remedies hearings in its advertising trial.