On February 28, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy held a long-awaited meeting with US President Donald Trump in an attempt to persuade him to continue US support for Ukraine. The encounter was likely not what the Ukrainian head of state had expected.
Trump and US Vice President JD Vance chastised Zelenskyy in front of TV cameras for being “disrespectful” and for refusing to embrace their initiative for a ceasefire with Russia.
It is evident that Zelenskyy will not make a return to Washington during Trump’s presidency. It is also evident that US pressure on Ukraine will significantly escalate in the following weeks and months, as Trump presses Kyiv to make significant concessions to Russia in return for peace.
Even before the showdown at the White House, the Trump administration was questioning Zelenskyy’s legitimacy and pushing for presidential elections to be held. Holding a rushed election with the sole purpose of eliminating the incumbent, however, could spell disaster for the country.
Before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, approval ratings for Zelenskyy’s presidency were as low as 28 percent and 11 percent for his party. Russia’s full-scale invasion sent Ukrainians rallying behind the president and his popularity reached record highs. However, over the past two years, his approval ratings have been on a consistent decline. According to polls, trust in Zelenskyy fell from 54 percent in April 2024 to 49 percent in January – not as low as Trump has claimed, but a far cry from his 90 percent rating in May 2022.
Multiple factors have contributed to Zelenskyy’s declining popularity, including rampant corruption under his administration and the growing fatigue from the ongoing war.
The Ukrainian president – well aware of his vulnerability – has made clear that he is not comfortable with competition. For him, the stakes are high because if he were to lose a re-election bid, he could face prosecution for corruption or various forms of retribution from his rivals. The polls are already showing that if elections were to be held immediately, he would lose.
A formidable challenger to Zelenskyy has already emerged: Valerii Zaluzhnyi, a four-star general who served as commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s armed forces until February 2024. Polls show that Zaluzhnyi – if he were to run in a presidential vote – would defeat Zelenskyy. Public trust in him is among the highest and stood at 72 percent in January.
Although Zaluzhnyi was dismissed by the president on the heels of the failed Ukrainian counteroffensive in 2023, there have been speculations that his popularity in Ukraine may have also been a factor. The general was sent abroad to serve as the Ukrainian ambassador to the United Kingdom – a position he still occupies.
So far, Zaluzhnyi has not declared an intention to run, although there are no guarantees he would not change his mind. If he stays out, other military figures, such as Kyrylo Budanov, may step in.
Budanov, Ukraine’s intelligence chief, has a public trust rating of 62 percent. He recently disappeared from the public eye after a year of high-profile media appearances. Rumours have spread that Zelenskyy’s office planned to remove him, resulting in his sudden retreat. But he may well reappear once the campaign begins.
Boxing champion Oleksandr Usyk could become a potential dark horse. In a country where a former comedian became president, a victorious athlete doesn’t seem like an unlikely contender. Although he has not made any political ambitions public, he has started appearing in polls and his rating currently stands at 60 percent.
Then there is former President Petro Poroshenko, who has low approval ratings, but remains a dangerous rival to Zelenskyy. Since 2019, more than 130 criminal cases have been launched against him – including one accusing him of treason for approving a coal-supplying scheme from the Russian-occupied Donbas region.
Poroshenko is an outspoken critic of Zelenskyy and is not hiding his political ambitions. He has travelled to the US and met with Trump’s team. In February, when he tried to go to the Munich Security Conference, he was not allowed. He now faces state-imposed sanctions on “national security grounds”, which include an asset freeze.
The message of the sanctions is clear: Poroshenko will be eliminated from the presidential race before it even begins. In this context of perceived political persecution, other potential challengers have not come forward, being too afraid to run.
There has been growing concern over Zelenskyy’s handling of opposition figures, but so far, no strong public rebuke has emerged from his allies. After the confrontation at the White House, European leaders expressed support for him. This has given Zelenskyy a temporary boost at home, but it is unclear how long it could hold.
Apart from the bitter political rivalries and retribution, the Ukrainian political scene is also marked by continuing divisions within society. The war has intensified emotions and split the country right down the middle, creating a volatile situation.
The ultranationalists not only hold sway among certain parts of the population but also are empowered as active participants in the war. There is also still a portion of society that leans pro-Russian and does not want the conflict to continue.
If an election is imposed from abroad in this volatile situation, it could prove more catastrophic than Russia’s invasion or the loss of Ukraine’s industrial heartlands. The danger isn’t just that a third of the population would be unable to vote and the election’s legitimacy may be in question.
The real threat is that the vote could ignite a fight of all against all before a single ballot is cast. An incumbent who fears losing a re-election bid and political rivals who are hellbent on regaining relevance may resort to exploiting societal divisions. The military and security agencies could be forced to act, which adds to a potentially explosive mix.
If presidential elections can dangerously polarise societies at peace – as we have seen in the United States – they can do much worse in times of war. A rushed election in Ukraine that serves the political plans of a foreign power is certainly a recipe for disaster. A vote should be held once there is a durable ceasefire that allows for all Ukrainians to cast their votes without fear of the prospect of polarisation and conflict.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.
