The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season will likely experience above-average activity, the National Hurricane Center announced on Thursday.
Between 13 and 19 named storms are expected for the 2025 season, which starts on June 1 and lasts until Nov. 30, according to the NHC. Storms are named when they become tropical storms or stronger.
Meteorologists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predict between six and 10 hurricanes and between three and five major hurricanes, at Category 3 or higher.
There is a 60% chance of an above-normal season, Ken Graham, director of NOAA’s National Weather Service and assistant administrator for weather services at NOAA, told reporters on Thursday.
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What factors are impacting this year’s forecast?
Recent La Niña conditions in the equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean have ended with neutral conditions — meaning no La Niña or El Niño — now in place. This is forecast to continue heading into the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season.
El Niño conditions favor below average Atlantic hurricane season activity, while neutral or La Niña conditions tend to favor above average activity.
In addition, sea surface temperatures are currently much warmer than average in the Atlantic Basin.
There is also a forecast for weak wind shear. This allows hurricanes to form and sustain longer without inhibition or limiting.
Higher activity from the West African Monsoon is also predicted, which helps to initiate tropical cyclones.
The high heat content that has been experienced the last few seasons is expected to continue, both in the air and in the ocean water. This works to fuel tropical cyclones.
“Everything’s in place for an above average season,” Graham said.
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How accurate is the National Hurricane Center at forecasting hurricane paths?
In 2024, National Hurricane Center forecasters set a new record for forecast track accuracy, according to a report released last month. But recent budget and staffing cuts by the Trump administration could jeopardize this progress, experts previously told ABC News.
NHC issued 347 official forecasts during the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, and its track predictions set accuracy records at every forecast time period.
Official track forecast errors have decreased significantly in recent years and are now up to 75% smaller than they were a few decades ago.
Intensity forecast accuracy continues to lag behind track forecasts, however, overall intensity predictions have shown steady improvement over the past decade.
Graham told reporters during Thursday’s news conference that the NHC is “fully staffed” and “ready to go.”
“We are proud of the amount of forecasting that happens and how accurate they are with that,” Graham said. “Weather prediction, modeling and protecting human lives and property is our top priority.”
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Hurricane hunter staffing and plane shortages could impact forecasting
Hurricane hunter missions have struggled with staffing and maintenance issues in recent years, according to a Government Accountability Office report released in March.
These impacts could be exacerbated as NOAA and the National Weather Service cope with recent budget and staffing cuts by the Trump administrations that have impacted various offices nationwide.
When asked whether cuts will impact forecasting, Graham said the hurricane hunters at NOAA and the U.S. Airforce are ready for deployment, adding that meteorologists will also rely on the latest models and supplemental information from weather balloons operated by private companies.
“NOAA remains dedicated to its mission, providing timely information, research, and resources that serve the American public and ensure our nation’s environmental and economic resilience,” an agency spokesperson told ABC News previously. “We continue to provide weather information, forecasts and warnings pursuant to our public safety mission.”
The GAO also identified an aging aircraft fleet and an inadequate number of maintenance technicians as problems for the agency. In 2023, all three of NOAA’s Hurricane Hunter aircraft were grounded due to maintenance issues as Hurricane Idalia threatened Florida in late August.
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What is NOAA’s hurricane outlook?
The hurricane season outlook forecasts either below, near, or above average activity for the upcoming season. It will also provide a forecast range for the number of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes that are currently expected.
NOAA’s outlook is for overall seasonal activity, and like we saw last year, varying levels of activity could occur throughout the six-month season. It does not discuss how many storms could make landfall or impact the U.S.
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Storm names for 2025
A storm gets a name once it is deemed a tropical storm, which is when sustained winds reach 39 mph or higher, according to NOAA. A tropical storm becomes a hurricane when it reaches sustained 74 mph winds or higher.
The storm will keep the name for the rest of its lifespan.
The names for the 2025 season are Andrea, Barry, Chantal, Dexter, Erin, Fernand, Gabrielle, Humberto, Imelda, Jerry, Karen, Lorenzo, Melissa, Nestor, Olga, Pablo, Rebekah, Sebastien, Tanya, Van and Wendy.
A hurricane becomes “major” when it reaches category 3 or higher, or sustained winds of 111 mph or higher.
Atlantic tropical storms had been named from lists originated by the National Hurricane Center since 1953, according to the NHC. Storm names are now maintained and updated through a strict procedure by the World Meteorological Organization.
Names are used in rotation and re-cycled every six years, unless a storm is so deadly or costly that the future use of its name would be inappropriate.
ABC News’ Kenton Gewecke and Sam Wnek contributed to this report.
Above-normal activity predicted for 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, NOAA forecasts originally appeared on abcnews.go.com
