Tornadoes threaten huge swaths of the U.S. this weekend amid a season already marked by unusually high storm activity, even as the National Weather Service faces budget cuts likely to impede its ability to respond to severe weather.
What to Expect
The National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center has forecast severe thunderstorms with scattered tornadoes—some of them intense—across parts of Kentucky, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Tennessee, Arkansas and Ohio for the afternoon and evening of May 16.
“Today we’re expecting a severe weather outbreak across the mid-Mississippi, Tennessee and Ohio valleys,” says Jenni Pittman, a meteorologist and deputy chief of the Science and Technology Integration division at the National Weather Service’s Central Region Headquarters. These regions stretch farther east than the historically prevalent “Tornado Alley” of the mid- to late 1900s.
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“Then we see a renewed chance for severe weather Sunday, continuing Monday and continuing Tuesday as well,” Pittman says. “A lot of the risks on Sunday through Tuesday are going to be from the High Plains pretty much through the Midwest.” National Weather Service maps show these risks concentrated in Kansas and Oklahoma.
This weekend’s predicted tornadoes would follow a slight lull in the region, she adds. “We’ve had a little bit of a break here in May, which is typically a pretty busy severe weather month,” Pittman says. “April was very active, and the rest of May does look pretty active as well.”
This Year in Tornadoes
As of May 15, the National Weather Service has tallied 779 tornadoes in its local storm reports—a preliminary number but a helpful metric for tracking the season’s severity. For comparison, between 2005 and 2015, that same tally averaged 624; between 2010 and 2024, it was 592.
“As of mid-May, the U.S. is running well above the typical number of tornadoes to this point in the year,” says Rich Thompson, chief of forecast operations for the Storm Prediction Center.
This year to date also stands out against individual years. The most active tornado season of recent years was 2011, when hundreds of storms struck in late April; by mid-May the tally stood at more than 1,300 storms, with more than 2,200 by the end of the year.
That year also demonstrated the close connection between just a few days of serious storms and a bad season. “Intense tornadoes are disproportionately responsible for damage, injuries and deaths, and such tornadoes are more common on a few ‘outbreak’ days,” Thompson says. “Thus, the number of outbreak days often determines the severity of the season, with 2011 being the prime example of multiple high-impact tornado outbreaks.”
Overall, this year is more on par with last year, which had seen 815 tornado reports by this point in the season. Notably, one third of those storms have occurred during just three outbreak days in March and April, Thompson says.
What to Know
If you live in an area where tornadoes are forecast, follow local weather and emergency response offices closely. In general, experts recommend having supplies available to shelter in place and having a safety plan for pets as well as humans. Pittman also recommends that people have multiple ways to stay on top of weather alerts (such as through broadcasts on television and on battery-powered radios, outdoor sirens and fully charged mobile phones).
During an event, the National Weather Service recommends that people living where a severe thunderstorm watch is active head to “an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building.”
If you’re caught away from shelter, the calculus becomes more complicated. In a vehicle, if a storm is still at a distance, you may be able evade it by driving at a right angle to the tornado’s apparent approach. If already caught in the winds, park instead, and either keep your seat belt fastened and protect your head and neck or get out of the car if there’s someplace safe to lie below the elevation of the roadway. Avoid sheltering under bridges, however, which don’t offer much protection, experts note.
