The NFL’s annual schedule release is fun because everyone wants to see key matchups or maybe a road trip for their favorite teams.
When teams play certain opponents matters, but probably not as much as the strength of schedule itself.
The NFL doesn’t have a balanced schedule and some teams will benefit from having an easier path. The Washington Commanders had the second-easiest schedule in the NFL last season. They went 12-5, piling up 11 wins over teams that did not make the playoffs last season. Washington had a fun, tremendous season, but it obviously benefited from the schedule. The schedule gets tougher this season for the Commanders.
The San Francisco 49ers had the opposite experience. They had the toughest schedule last season. There were many reasons, such as injuries, the 49ers went 6-11. But the NFL’s hardest schedule was a factor too. Of the teams with the six-toughest schedules last season — 49ers, Bears, Giants, Raiders, Browns and Cardinals — none made the playoffs. The schedule gets much, much easier for the 49ers this season.
Trying to predict strength of schedule is inexact. Team rosters have changed since last season and will be better or worse than expected once the season starts. But here is the strength of schedule for the 2025 season, based on the total win percentage of their opponents in 2024:
Giants have tough schedule again
The strength of schedule for the New York Giants is probably bad news. It’s a team that’s building up, and coach Brian Daboll and general manager Joe Schoen start the season on the hot seat. Based on last season’s records, the Giants have the toughest schedule in the NFL this season. That’s not great.
There are many other teams with championship aspirations with some of the toughest schedules in the league. The Detroit Lions went 15-2 last season but are tied for the second-hardest schedule. The Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles have the fourth-toughest schedule. The Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings are tied for the fifth-hardest slate. And the Commanders have the eighth-hardest schedule after having one of the easiest in the NFL last season.
49ers have a big schedule swing
The 49ers had the toughest schedule in the NFL last season. This season, it flips completely and they have the easiest schedule, based on last year’s records. The 49ers get that schedule based on a last-place finish and being paired with the AFC South, which will likely be the weakest division in that conference. If you’re optimistic about the 49ers, the extreme difference in schedule strength should be one of the top reasons why.
Other teams looking to make an improvement should have an easier time this season. The New England Patriots, who had an excellent offseason, have the third-easiest schedule. That’s a reason to believe the Patriots could make a big improvement.
Another team with a notably weak schedule is the Bills, who are tied for the ninth-easiest schedule. That’s the easiest among any Super Bowl contender, unless you count the 49ers in that group.
Seeing games slotted into spots when the NFL releases the full schedule on Wednesday night is entertaining. But more attention should be paid to how hard each team’s schedule will be.
