Nintendo has issued what analysts are calling a “conservative” Switch 2 sales forecast amid ongoing uncertainty around tariffs.
Reporting its financials this morning, Nintendo forecast 15 million sales of the Switch 2 and 45 million game sales during its current financial year ending March 31, 2026. The Switch 2 goes on sale June 5.
Nintendo said its forecast assumes the U.S. tariff rates that kicked in on April 10 are maintained throughout its financial year, but admitted changes to the tariff rates may affect its forecast. “We will continue to monitor the situation to respond to changes in market conditions,” Nintendo said.
Daniel Ahmad, Director of Research & Insights at Niko Partners, called the 15 million figure “conservative,” saying in a tweet that Nintendo was “likely factoring in unpredictability around tariffs, pricing and production despite the positive pre-order momentum.”
Ahmad followed up by saying Nintendo could raise its forecast if the tariff situation is reversed. “However, main issue right now is knock on effects that are already in motion and creating a difficult environment for a console launch. Not to mention the threat of increased tariffs.”
It’s worth noting that if Switch 2 hits 15 million in its first year, it would go down as one of the biggest console launches of all time, and would exceed the OG Switch’s 14.87 million sold year-one.
Demand for Switch 2 does seem huge. After a delay due to tariffs, Nintendo Switch 2 pre-orders went live on April 24 with the price of the console still fixed at $449.99 — and they went about as well as you’d expect. Meanwhile, Nintendo has issued a warning to U.S. customers who applied for a Switch 2 pre-order from the My Nintendo Store, saying release date delivery is not guaranteed due to very high demand.
Check out IGN’s Nintendo Switch 2 pre-order guide for more.
Wesley is the UK News Editor for IGN. Find him on Twitter at @wyp100. You can reach Wesley at wesley_yinpoole@ign.com or confidentially at wyp100@proton.me.
