SYDNEY (Reuters) -Australian financial markets on Monday largely welcomed a historic win by the centre-left Labor Party as it strengthens the government’s hand in dealing with any serious threat to the economy from Donald Trump’s global trade war.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese secured a resounding victory in the nation’s general election on Saturday, riding a voter backlash against the policies of Trump that consigned the conservative Liberal-National coalition to a heavy defeat.
The result expands the incumbent Labor Party’s majority in the lower house and boosts its ranks in the senate, providing more leeway for the government to deal with what Treasurer Jim Chalmers described as a global economy “going crazy.”
Shane Oliver, chief economist at AMP, said Labor’s victory was flagged by most recent opinion polls and wouldn’t come as a big surprise for investors.
“I think it’s probably going to be more steady as she goes (on fiscal policy), rather than the aggressive change one way or the other,” said Oliver. “Now of course if the economic outlook changes dramatically, then they may have to rethink.”
“The trade situation is still a threat, even though in the last few weeks that seems to have receded a little bit.”
Goldman Sachs left its forecasts for fiscal spending, GDP growth and RBA policy rates unchanged as the recent policy announcement from Labor is unlikely to have a material economic impact in the near-term.
On Monday, the resources-heavy share market slipped 0.4% but that was mostly due to an earnings miss from Westpac bank. It has largely been driven by the volatility in U.S. stocks over the last few months.
The Australian dollar hit a new five-month peak of $0.6481 on the back of a soft dollar as Trump’s chaotic trade policies dented investor confidence in U.S. assets.
Ten-year government bond futures fell 5 ticks, although that mirrored a fall in Treasuries on Friday after solid U.S. jobs data added to market bets of more cautious policy easing from the Federal Reserve.
For the Reserve Bank of Australia, swaps continue to fully price in another quarter-point rate cut to 3.85% this month, with a total of about four rate cuts expected by the year end.
Analysts say the election win strengthens Albanese’s hand with the United States in its trade negotiations and gives the government more scope to ramp up fiscal spending to counter the economic risks from a global tariff war.
Australia’s economy is expected to pick up this year on the back of a recovery in consumer spending, having expanded at a sub-par 1.3% last quarter.
The worry for Canberra is that an escalation in tensions between the United States, Australia’s main security ally, and China, its largest trading partner, risks seriously hurting the domestic economy.
Fiscal spending has been a key driver of growth over recent years, without which the economy would have stagnated.
TD Securities expects Australian yields to rise across the curve particularly at the long end, adding that Labor’s resounding victory reinforces the view that larger fiscal deficits are here to stay.
“Sure, budget deficits are not moving in the right direction, but the election outcome is not enough to threaten Australia’s AAA credit rating,” said Prashant Newnaha, senior Asia-Pacific rates strategist at TD Securities.
(Reporting by Stella QiuEditing by Shri Navaratnam)
