How many dolls do your kids really need? Probably fewer than they have, if you accept President Trump’s guidance.
During an April 30 Cabinet event, a reporter asked Trump if he had talked with Chinese President Xi Jinping about the tariff war that has essentially frozen trade between the two countries. Trump dodged the question and riffed on trade, arguing that many imported goods from China are redundant and unnecessary.
“Much of it we don’t need,” Trump told the cameras. “Maybe the children will have two dolls instead of 30 dolls. And maybe the two dolls will cost a couple of bucks more than they would normally.”
No biggie, right? Pay more per unit for the American product than the imported one, and buy less overall. Nobody will notice the difference.
It’s just one offhand remark, and there’s no indication Trump plans to codify his two-doll policy through an executive order. As of now, Americans can still buy as many dolls as they can afford. So let’s not make too big a deal out of what a 78-year-old president thinks about Barbie or Ken.
Notable, however, is the fluid nature of Trump’s explanations for his economic plan and what he expects Americans to tolerate. As a candidate last year, Trump said he’d bring “trillions of dollars in wealth” to the nation. In his inaugural speech in January, he declared that a new “golden age” had arrived. In March, he said, “We’re going to become so rich you’re not going to know where to spend all that money.”
Lately, however, Trump has sounded like more of a scold.
He now says the economy needs “medicine,” like it’s a sick patient. When new data showed the economy shrank in the first quarter, Trump said, “I think you have to give us a little bit of time to get moving.” Then he made the remark about dialing back on dolls.
Trump, of course, is busy explaining away the negative effects of his tariffs, which are starting to bite as importers pay higher taxes on incoming goods or simply stop buying them. Trump has raised the average tax rate on imports from 2.5% to about 25%, with frequent changes that are giving businesses whiplash. His tariffs on most Chinese imports, including toy dolls, are a stratospheric 145%.
Read more: The latest news and updates on Trump’s tariffs
Economists have warned of widespread consequences, which are just now starting to materialize. First quarter GDP shrank for the first time in three years because imports surged as American businesses rushed to beat the tariffs. Imports detract from GDP in the traditional way it’s calculated, which leaves the GDP report a confusing muddle that may or may not mean the real economy is shrinking.
Port traffic is slowing as Chinese cargo ships idle at sea or never even set out. Most shoppers haven’t seen the consequences yet, but they will as current inventories run out and new products bear the cost of Trump’s double- or triple-digit tariffs. In some cases, importers won’t pay the tariffs because the profit hit will be too deep, which is why there are likely to be shortages of shoes, clothing, electronics, toys, appliances, and many other things made in China.
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Consumers generally know this is coming, which is why the Consumer Board’s consumer confidence index has fallen five months in a row — ever since Trump got elected last year. That survey’s expectations index, which measures the direction people think the economy is headed, has now hit the lowest level since the doldrum days of 2011. Consumers broadly expect Trump’s tariffs to raise their prices and weaken the economy.
Read more: What Trump’s tariffs mean for the economy and your wallet
That puts Trump in the position of having to defend not just theoretical arguments against his tariffs — as he did as a candidate — but real damage as ordinary people begin to see it with their own two eyes. Since most of the price hikes and product shortages haven’t arrived yet, Trump may be field-testing ways to play down whatever tariff pain people ultimately feel.
Who knows, maybe American families really do have too many toys and kids won’t notice if the supply thins out. But counseling austerity is not usually a winning political move. President Jimmy Carter’s 1977 “sweater speech,” in which he urged his fellow Americans to turn down the thermostat to save energy, was generally viewed as a nebbish clunker that made the president look like a marm, a reputational hit that dogged Carter all the way to his reelection loss to Ronald Reagan in 1980.
Maybe Trump will change his mind and decide to go easy on the dolls.
Rick Newman is a senior columnist for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on Bluesky and X: @rickjnewman.
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