Anthony Joshua has delivered a stark assessment of this weekend’s crossover boxing spectacle, giving kickboxing legend Rico Verhoeven a “single-figure percentage chance” of dethroning unified heavyweight champion Oleksandr Usyk—a prediction that underscores the monumental gap between a decorated boxer and a combat sports pioneer stepping far outside his element.
The boxing world is buzzing with anticipation for the unusual matchup at the pyramids of Giza, but few voices carry the weight of Anthony Joshua in this conversation. The two-time heavyweight champion, who has faced Usyk twice and lost both times, recently joined a DAZN video call with promoter Eddie Hearn and Matchroom executive Frank Smith to offer his take. His conclusion was as concise as it was devastating for Verhoeven’s hopes.
“I think this is the biggest mountain to climb for Rico Verhoeven,” Hearn stated, before delivering his own verdict. “I give him single-figure percentage chance.” Joshua immediately concurred. “Probably the same, you know – respectfully,” he replied, framing his analysis through the lens of a man who has been in the ring with the Ukrainian master.
To understand why the prediction is so lopsided, one must separate Oleksandr Usyk’s unparalleled boxing résumé from Rico Verhoeven’s legendary status in a different discipline. Usyk enters as the reigning WBC, IBF, and WBA heavyweight champion, a former undisputed champion at both heavyweight and cruiserweight, and an Olympic gold medalist. His professional record is unblemished, with 24 wins, including two dominant victories over Joshua himself. His technical mastery, footwork, and stamina are considered generational.
Verhoeven, by contrast, is a giant in kickboxing—widely regarded as one of the greatest heavyweights in the sport’s history. However, his transition to professional boxing is exceptionally sparse. His sole boxing bout was a knockout victory in 2014, a decade ago. This extreme lack of high-level, 12-round boxing experience against elite opposition is the core of Joshua and Hearn’s skepticism. The historical context of this fight is a massive factor, as detailed in the pre-fight reporting from AOL.
Joshua’s analysis went beyond a simple percentage. He employed a vivid metaphor to explain Usyk’s method of victory. “Let’s say you’re playing Street Fighter and you’ve got your energy bars,” Joshua explained. “I think Usyk knows how to make his energy just… He will just drain him, in my opinion.” This speaks to Usyk’s famed ability to control pace, volume, and psychological pressure over the duration of a fight—a skill set Verhoeven has never been required to endure in a boxing ring.
Hearn painted a specific timeline for the potential finish. “I expect him… three or four rounds, I think he’ll knock him out,” he said, while acknowledging Verhoeven’s punching power. Joshua, showing a fan’s desire for spectacle, added, “I hope it goes four or more, because I want to enjoy a night of boxing.” This candidness from a former champion who trained with Usyk in Kyiv as reported by AOL adds a layer of insider credibility to the public prediction.
The stakes extend beyond this single exhibition. At 39, Usyk is strategically managing his legendary career. After this voluntary defense, a WBC mandatory against Agit Kabayel looms. A Verhoeven victory would not only be one of the biggest upsets in combat sports history but would also completely scramble the heavyweight landscape and derail Usyk’s meticulously planned path. The Dutch kickboxer’s sole path to victory lies in Egypt on Saturday, a scenario the boxing community views as a monumental long shot based on the stark disparity in relevant experience.
Ultimately, Joshua’s “single-figure” comment is more than a prediction; it’s a distillation of the fundamental mismatch. It frames the bout not as a competitive contest, but as a masterclass in the making, where Usyk’s boxing IQ and endurance are expected to systematically dismantle a phenomenal athlete operating in a foreign arena. The consensus among insiders, now publicly echoed by a former opponent, is that Verhoeven’s greatest achievement will be stepping into the ring, with a victory remaining a remote fantasy.
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