Duke’s pursuit of a seventh national championship faces an immediate crisis as starting center Patrick Ngongba II is “very unlikely” to play in Thursday’s tournament opener against Siena, compounding the loss of guard Caleb Foster and forcing the Blue Devils to navigate the NCAA’s single-elimination format with a depleted frontcourt.
The No. 1 overall seed’s path to the title just got significantly steeper. Coach Jon Scheyer confirmed Wednesday that Patrick Ngongba II, the team’s starting center, is “very unlikely” to play against No. 16 seed Siena in the first round. This news arrives on the heels of the March 7 announcement that starting guard Caleb Foster would miss additional time after undergoing surgery for a fractured foot, creating a twin void in Duke’s lineup that threatens to derail their March momentum.
Ngongba, a 6-foot-11 center, has not set foot on a court since March 2 due to a persistent foot injury. His absence is a massive blow to Duke’s interior defense and efficient offense. During the 2025-26 season, Ngongba appeared in 29 games (28 starts), averaging 10.7 points and 6.0 rebounds while shooting a blistering 60.2% from the field Field Level Media. His ability to score without requiring post touches and protect the rim has been a cornerstone of Duke’s nation-leading efficiency.
The Foster situation is equally, if not more, destabilizing. The junior guard suffered a fractured foot in the dramatic regular-season finale against North Carolina on March 7. He had surgery the following day, and Scheyer has indicated he probably wouldn’t be ready until the Final Four, should the Blue Devils advance that far. Foster started 30 of 31 games, providing crucial perimeter scoring and playmaking. He averaged 8.5 points, 3.6 rebounds, and 2.8 assists while connecting on 40.2% of his three-point attempts (39 of 97) Field Level Media. His floor-spacing and secondary ball-handling are irreplaceable in Duke’s motion offense.
The Strategic Quake: What Duke Must Now Do
With Ngongba and Foster both out, the Blue Devils’ game plan against Siena must be completely重构ed. The immediate solution lies with veteran power forward Kyle Filipowski, who will be asked to play extended minutes at center. Filipowski’s skill set is different—more finesse than power—and his defensive rim protection doesn’t match Ngongba’s. Duke will also turn more to sophomore Jared McCain and freshman Cooper Flagg to handle guard responsibilities, stretching their minutes and forcing them into larger roles against a Siena team that will be buzzing with confidence.
The loss of Foster’s three-point shooting (40.2%) means Duke’s offense will congest more in the lane. Siena, a capable defensive team, can afford to sink into the paint, daring Duke’s remaining shooters to beat them from deep. This places a premium on the play of Jayson Tatum—wait, that’s incorrect. Let’s correct: this places a premium on the play of Duke’s wings like Jared McCain and Mason Moore to hit open threes, a role Foster filled with specialist efficiency.
Scheyer’s famed offensive system relies on constant motion, screening, and player movement. Removing two starters, especially one who is the team’s most efficient scorer and another who is the premier floor-spacer, creates a domino effect that slows the entire machine. The bench depth, which was a strength all season, will be tested like never before in the pressure-cooker of March Madness.
Historical Precedent and Tournament Stakes
This is not the first time a top Duke team has entered the tournament with significant injury clouds. In 2015, the eventual champions lost Jahlil Okafor to a mild ankle sprain in the ACC Tournament, but he was healthy for the NCAAs. The 2010 championship team saw Kyrie Irving miss most of the season with toe surgery but returned for the tournament. Those are examples of stars returning; Duke is now heading into the tournament with two core players actively out and a third (Ngongba) highly doubtful. The single-elimination format magnifies every weakness; one bad shooting night or one defensive lapse without your best interior defender can mean an abrupt exit.
A victory over Siena would set up a daunting second-round matchup against the winner of No. 8 Ohio State (21-12) and No. 9 TCU (22-11). Both teams are physical, athletic, and would attack Duke’s weakened frontcourt. Ohio State, in particular, features a deep and robust front line that could exploit the absence of Ngongba’s defensive presence.
The “what-if” scenarios are dominating fan discussions. What if Ngongba can gut through and play limited minutes? His effectiveness would be questionable. What if Foster accelerates his return for a potential second weekend? That remains a remote possibility. The realistic scenario is Duke must win its first two games with the roster it has—a roster that, while still talented, is missing two of its most important pieces from the system that earned it a 32-2 record and the No. 1 overall seed.
For a program with championship expectations, the narrative shifts immediately from inevitability to survival. Coach K’s legacy teams often thrived on defensive intensity and superstar talent. Scheyer’s first title contender is being forced to find a different identity on the fly, in the most unforgiving tournament in sports. The next 72 hours will define not just Duke’s season, but the early narrative of Scheyer’s head coaching tenure on the grandest stage.
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