Illinois Republicans say the state’s bleeding residents and revenue because Democrats keep reaching for higher tax rates instead of growing the pool of people who pay them.
Republicans Launch Opening Salvo of 2026 Session
Minutes after House members gaveled in for the year, Tony McCombie (R-Savanna) stepped to the podium and flipped the affordability conversation on its head. flanked by Amy Elik (R-Alton) and Joe Sosnowski (R-Rockford), the new minority leader declared that any talk of new taxes is “dead on arrival” if Democrats won’t first pursue policies that attract residents and businesses.
“If Democrats were serious about real affordability, they wouldn’t be focused on growing government revenue through higher taxes, they would be focused on growing Illinois’ tax base,” McCombie said. The remark was a direct rebuttal to Speaker Emanuel “Chris” Welch’s recent vow that the 2026 session would prioritize “affordability.”
Population Flight Becomes Exhibit A
Elik pressed the economic argument, noting that families in her river-district counties can “move just across the river and pay less for gas, groceries and property taxes, and many are making that choice.” She pointed to Missouri Republicans’ push to eliminate the state income tax as the kind of competitive pressure Illinois ignores at its peril.
- Illinois lost more than 100,000 residents to other states in 2023 alone, the seventh straight year of net out-migration.
- Border counties from Jo Daviess to Alexander have seen school enrollments drop double digits since 2015.
- Interstate 55 moving-van traffic shows Illinois as the No. 1 exporter of households to the Sun Belt.
Transparency Grade: F
Elik also revived a transparency fight from last fall. After Gov. J.B. Pritzker issued an executive order demanding agencies find waste, Republicans filed Freedom of Information Act requests to see the results. The administration denied them. “That’s not reform. That’s avoidance and political theater,” Elik said, citing an F grade from Truth in Accounting for Illinois’ fiscal transparency.
Pritzke Counter-Punches on Federal Cuts
While GOP lawmakers blame Springfield, Pritzker blames Washington. At a Chicago roundtable Tuesday, the governor warned that “uncertainty and actual funding being cut” from federal nutrition, housing and health programs are hammering low-income Illinoisans. He argued programs like SNAP are “100% federally funded” and can’t be back-filled by the state without structural reforms in D.C. He labeled Trump-era policies “destructive,” signaling Democrats will spend the session linking federal cuts to local pain.
What Happens Next
The House adjourned until February; the Senate returns February 3. Expect three flashpoints:
- Permanent Grocery Tax Freeze: Democrats want to extend the 1% state tax pause; GOP says eliminate it entirely to match Indiana’s 0% rate.
- Property Tax Relief Task Force: Republicans will push to cap annual assessment growth at 3%, a non-starter for municipalities reliant on local levies.
- Constitutional Amendment Push: Progressives still eye a graduated income-tax do-over; McCombie promised “total war” to block it.
Bottom Line
Illinois’ 2026 tax debate is no longer about which lever to pull—it’s about which direction the state wants to grow. Republicans are betting that a larger, wealthier population beats a higher rate on a shrinking one. Democrats are betting federal headwinds make new revenue unavoidable. With census projections showing Illinois on track to lose a second congressional seat after 2030, the stakes are bigger than any single bill. The side that convinces restless residents and wary employers will decide whether Springfield’s next decade looks more like Austin or Detroit.
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