Twelve days after the U.S. snatched Nicolás Maduro, interim president Delcy Rodriguez is reshuffling generals, oil execs, and spies to outmaneuver rival Diosdado Cabello before he can turn Venezuela’s guns on her.
The Overnight Coup That Wasn’t
When U.S. special operators extracted Nicolás Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores on 5 January, they left behind a vacuum no constitution anticipated. Within hours, Vice-President-turned-interim-leader Delcy Rodriguez invoked an obscure continuity clause, swore herself in, and began what Caracas insiders now call “the night of the tsarina’s knives.”
First Move: Own the Spies
Rodriguez’s most decisive stroke came 48 hours later: she replaced General Javier Marcano at the DGCIM military counter-intelligence agency with 65-year-old Major General Gustavo Gonzalez, a man who once shared prison time with Hugo Chávez after the 1992 coup attempt but owes his recent oil-sector sinecures to Rodriguez herself. The switch gives her direct control over the unit that keeps tabs on 2,000 Venezuelan generals—twice the number in the entire U.S. armed forces.
The Cabello Shadow
Every reshuffle targets one man: Diosdado Cabello, interior minister, PSUV party boss, and the only figure who can mobilize both the colectivo motorcycle militias and chunks of the army. Cabello’s first post-Maduro TV appearance—flak-jacketed, flanked by guards, chanting “to doubt is to betray”—was read by Rodriguez’s camp as a veiled threat of a security backlash. U.S. officials have warned Cabello against unleashing violence, Reuters reports, but they also maintain contact with him, keeping his leverage alive.
Oil for Protection
Rodriguez knows survival requires Washington’s goodwill. CIA Director John Ratcliffe flew to Caracas on 15 January for a closed-door meeting that lasted three hours; the next day Rodriguez promised parliament she would “open the valves” to raise crude output above 1 million bpd—double today’s crippled level. In exchange, the Trump administration has hinted at easing sanctions on state-oil firm PDVSA, a lifeline Rodriguez desperately needs to pay the patronage networks that keep generals loyal.
Price Shock & Neighborhood Snoops
Ordinary Venezuelans feel the turbulence in real time. Supermarket prices leapt 30 percent in a week as merchants bet on dollar inflows that have yet to arrive. Meanwhile, local PSUV cells have revived the old “comité de vigilancia” system, demanding neighbors report anyone celebrating Maduro’s fall, according to three party members who spoke anonymously. The message: loyalty tests now apply to civilians as well as soldiers.
Can Gonzalez Really Control DGCIM?
Despite the title, General Gonzalez inherits an agency honeycombed with Cabello loyalists. His predecessor Marcano never managed to curb DGCIM’s torture rooms or stop the agency from moonlighting as Cabello’s private detective force. Gonzalez’s 2024 appointment to PDVSA came via Rodriguez, giving her a patron-client lever, but mid-ranking officers still salute Cabello’s legend. If orders clash, analysts expect the old guard to stall and leak, not obey.
The “Anarchization” Card
Intelligence sources fear Cabello could flip the script by activating a contingency plan drawn up years ago to deter U.S. invasion: unleash colectivos and rogue DGCIM units to sow chaos—blackouts, highway blockades, targeted killings—then blame the ensuing disorder on Rodriguez’s “betrayal.” The tactic, dubbed “anarquización,” would make Caracas ungovernable and force the army to choose between the sitting president and the man who signs their off-the-books bonuses.
Prisoner Releases as Pressure Gauge
One measurable yardstick of who is winning: the pace of political prisoner frees. Trump has publicly praised Rodriguez for beginning releases, but family groups say fewer than 80 of 300 documented detainees have walked free—far below U.S. expectations. Cabello’s allies in the prison service can slow paperwork, turning each liberation into a micro-battleground that erodes Rodriguez’s credibility in Washington.
Historical Echo: 1958 All Over Again?
Venezuelans old enough to remember 23 January 1958 hear chilling parallels: back then dictator Marcos Pérez Jiménez fled overnight, leaving a fractured junta that collapsed within months. The difference is the external broker—Washington—now has troops offshore and oil-price leverage, meaning the fight is less about street protests and more about which faction secures the first sanctions relief check.
Bottom Line
Rodriguez has the titles, the Central Bank, and—today—the White House’s ear. Cabello has the guns, the grassroots, and a proven willingness to use both. The next 60 days will reveal whether Venezuela’s first female president can turn temporary U.S. protection into permanent command, or whether the colectivos roar back to life and rewrite the ending. For Venezuelans, the stakes are simple: whoever wins this backstage knife fight will decide if their next meal is subsidized by renewed oil money or buried under another wave of repression.
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