The NFL’s final four in each conference are set, and every divisional matchup carries historic stakes: Denver seeks its first home AFC title game since 2015, New England eyes an unprecedented ninth straight divisional-round win, Seattle battles for its first home playoff victory in seven years, and Chicago hosts its first divisional contest since the 1985 Super Bowl run.
AFC Saturday: No. 5 Bills at No. 1 Broncos
Kickoff: Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET, Empower Field, Denver
TV: CBS
Line: Broncos –1.5, Total 46.5 FanDuel
Denver’s 14-3 record earned the franchise its first No. 1 seed since the Peyton Manning era. The Broncos’ defense led the NFL with 68 sacks and finished second in total yards allowed (278.2) and rushing yards allowed (91.1). That unit welcomes a Bills offense that just gashed Jacksonville for 173 rushing yards and survived 11 quarterback hits on Josh Allen.
Allen brings 36 postseason touchdowns into his 15th playoff start, the most ever for a quarterback before age 30. Buffalo’s ground game ranks first in the league behind James Cook, who piled up 1,912 scrimmage yards. The chess match: Denver surrendered 4.0 yards per carry in 2025, but no quarterback has rushed for more playoff yards than Allen (701).
History leans Buffalo. The Bills embarrassed Bo Nix 31-7 in last year’s wild-card round, holding the rookie to 144 passing yards. Nix now gets a home playoff crowd and a healthier receiving corps, yet must prove he can win a January shootout against a QB who averages 309.5 combined yards per postseason start, the highest mark on record Pro-Football-Reference.
AFC Sunday: No. 3 Texans at No. 2 Patriots
Kickoff: Sunday, 3 p.m. ET, Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Mass.
TV: ESPN/ABC
Line: Patriots –3, Total 40.5
New England owns the longest divisional-round winning streak in league history at eight games, a run that began during Tom Brady’s prime and now rests on Drake Maye’s right arm. Maye led the NFL in passer rating in 2025 and gets a revenge shot against the team that battered him 41-21 in Week 6. Houston’s C.J. Stroud tossed three TDs in that same game, but he limps into Foxborough after a three-turnover outing at Pittsburgh.
The Texans’ pass rush is ferocious. Danielle Hunter (15 sacks) and Will Anderson Jr. (12) combined for two sacks, two forced fumbles, and seven QB hits against the Steelers. Protecting Maye will hinge on the health of New England’s line and the availability of lock-down corner Christian Gonzalez, who exited the wild-card win over the Chargers with a concussion.
Houston’s offense may be shorthanded: leading receiver Nico Collins is in the concussion protocol. Christian Kirk exploded for 144 yards and a score last week, but the Patriots’ secondary finished top-five in explosive-pass rate allowed. Expect a low-scoring chess match played in 30-degree New England air—perfect for the under and for Maye’s efficient play-action attack.
NFC Saturday: No. 6 49ers at No. 1 Seahawks
Kickoff: Saturday, 8 p.m. ET, Lumen Field, Seattle
TV: FOX
Line: Seahawks –7, Total 44.5
Seattle secured the NFC’s top seed for the first time since 2014, but the storyline all week has been Sam Darnold’s oblique strain. Coach Mike Macdonald insists the quarterback will play, critical news against a 49ers defense that blitzed on 42% of drop-backs in Philadelphia to mask injuries to Nick Bosa, Fred Warner, and George Kittle (torn Achilles).
Darnold’s security blanket is Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who shattered Seattle’s single-season receiving record with 1,793 yards. San Francisco’s answer is a battered secondary missing three Week 1 starters. The 49ers do counter with playoff-proven firepower: Christian McCaffrey has cleared 100 scrimmage yards in seven of eight postseason games and logged 114 last week on 25 touches.
Seattle beat San Francisco 13-3 in Week 18 to clinch the division; the 49ers won 17-13 on opening night. A deeper layer: San Francisco has captured seven straight divisional-round contests, tied with Kansas City for the longest active streak. A victory would make the Niners the first franchise with 20 conference championship appearances.
NFC Sunday: No. 5 Rams at No. 2 Bears
Kickoff: Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET, Soldier Field, Chicago
TV: NBC/Peacock
Line: Rams –3.5, Total 48.5
Chicago celebrates the 40-year anniversary of the 1985 Super Bowl XX title and hosts its first divisional playoff game since that legendary run. The Bears earned the right by erasing an 18-point deficit against the Packers, the largest comeback in franchise postseason history, behind Caleb Williams’ 25 fourth-quarter points.
Los Angeles counters with the league’s most prolific passer. Matthew Stafford topped 5,000 yards and will soon reach 50 total touchdowns in 2025. He distributes the ball to three teammates who each posted 13+ TDs: Puka Nacua (13), Kyren Williams (13), and Davante Adams (14). The matchup tilts on turnovers—Stafford threw eight picks all year, while Chicago’s defense led the NFL with 23 interceptions and 33 takeaways.
Weather is the wild card. Gametime wind-chill could dip below zero, conditions that favor Chicago’s ground-centric approach with D.J. Moore and rookie tight end Colston Loveland, who paced the team in receptions and hauled in eight catches for 137 yards against Green Bay. Sean McVay downplays the cold, but the Rams’ West-Coast tempo has historically dipped in sub-freezing games. Expect a classic field-position slugfest decided by which quarterback avoids the turnover avalanche.
What History Tells Us
- Home teams are 24-8 in the divisional round since 2019, but underdogs covered 60% of the time.
- Quarterbacks making their first or second playoff start (Nix, Maye, Darnold, Williams) are 7-17 straight-up over the last five postseasons.
- Top seeds have reached the Super Bowl in back-to-back years (Chiefs, 49ers) after a four-year drought, reinforcing the value of the bye week.
Bottom Line
Every remaining team has a legitimate path to Las Vegas. Denver’s pass rush and home-field altitude could fluster Allen. New England’s postseason experience offsets Houston’s chaos-inducing front. Seattle’s balanced attack matches up ideally against San Francisco’s injured defense. Chicago’s takeaway prowess gives the Bears a puncher’s chance against any air raid.
Parity reigns: three of the four games opened with a spread under a field goal. Expect at least one upset and perhaps an overtime thriller inside a frozen cathedral. The road to Super Bowl 61 runs through altitude, bluster, and a CenturyLink seismic roar—exactly the ingredients that make January football appointment viewing.
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