New York’s celebrated crime drop stops at the schoolhouse door: teen shootings and felony arrests are at all-time highs, and the 2018 Raise-the-Age law is the firewall keeping young shooters out of jail.
The Only Crime Category Still Climbing
While New York City closed 2025 with murders down 20 %, robberies down 10 % and shootings at record lows, one line on the ledger refused to bend: juvenile crime. NYPD Commissioner Jessica Tisch told reporters that 14 % of shooting victims and 18 % of gun-violence perpetrators were under 18—both highs since the department began tracking in 2018.
A Law Born of Good Intentions—With Deadly Gaps
That 2018 milestone is no coincidence. It is the same year the first wave of Raise the Age took effect, pushing 16- and 17-year-old offenders out of adult criminal court and into Family Court where jail is off the table. The result, documented by former Bronx prosecutor Dyer Halpern in a Manhattan Institute report: most cases never reach a judge; probation quietly closes the file and the teen walks.
Statewide Pattern, Statewide Outrage
The bloodshed is not a five-borough anomaly. From Buffalo to Albany, district attorneys report identical spikes. Mary Pat Donnelly, Rensselaer County DA and president of the state’s DA association, told The Post that Hochul must reopen the statute “to adequately tackle the rise in youth gun violence across our state.”
Rehabilitation Promises Meet Brutal Data
Supporters promised counseling and second chances; the streets delivered bullets. A 2024 literature review by the same think tank found scant evidence that juvenile diversion programs cut re-offending. Meanwhile, the share of citywide violent-felony arrests committed by juveniles has nearly tripled since Raise the Age launched:
- 2018: 9.8 %
- 2022: 13.1 %
- 2024: 15.6 %
- 2025: 23.3 %
Quick Fixes on the Table
Prosecutors are not asking to scrap the law overnight; they want surgical patches:
- Let Youth Part judges see a teen’s full rap sheet before deciding diversion.
- Make public-safety risk—not merely age—the top factor in transfer hearings.
- Close the “adjustment” loophole that lets repeat gun carriers skip court entirely.
Advocacy Groups: “It’s Working as Intended”
Anti-incarceration organizations celebrate the plummeting number of teens in adult jails. By that narrow metric, Raise the Age is a success. By the metric of bullet-ridden playgrounds and 15-year-olds carrying Glocks, the scoreboard looks different.
The Political Clock Ticks
Hochul, fresh off a narrow 2024 win, must now decide whether to protect her progressive flank or confront grieving parents and urban mayors demanding safer blocks. Legislative leaders have signaled they will introduce a reform package within the first 30 days of the 2026 session; the governor’s office has so far pledged only to “review all options.”
Bottom Line
New York proved it can drive down adult violence through precision policing. The only thing blocking the same playbook for teens is a statute that treats 17-year-old shooters as wayward children instead of public-safety threats. Unless Albany amends Raise the Age, 2026 risks becoming the year juvenile violence eclipses every other crime gain the state has fought for.
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