The U.S. seizure of Venezuela-linked oil tankers is pushing Cuba to the edge of economic collapse, with experts warning of mass migration, blackouts, and potential unrest as the island’s fragile economy faces its greatest threat in decades.
The Immediate Crisis: Fuel Shortages and Economic Freefall
Cuba is facing an existential threat as the U.S. ramps up seizures of oil tankers linked to Venezuela, its primary fuel supplier. Before the recent U.S. military raid that captured former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, Cuba relied on an estimated 35,000 barrels of oil daily from Venezuela, supplemented by smaller shipments from Mexico and Russia. The sudden disruption of these supplies could plunge the island into total darkness, experts warn.
“An indefinite shutdown of the electrical system, which is no longer so impossible to imagine, can be envisioned under a total suspension of oil shipments from Venezuela,” said Jorge Duany, director of the Cuban Research Institute at Florida International University. The consequences, he added, could include “mass protests” as the population grapples with prolonged blackouts and fuel shortages.
A History of Dependency and Collapse
Cuba’s economic vulnerability is not new. The fall of the Soviet Union in the 1990s triggered a severe crisis, but the island experienced relative stability between 2000 and 2019, driven by tourism and exports of services, nickel, rum, and tobacco. However, the COVID-19 pandemic and intensified U.S. sanctions under the Trump administration have crippled the economy. Cuba’s GDP has shrunk by 15% over the past six years, with a 4% decline in 2025 alone, according to President Miguel Díaz-Canel.
The current crisis echoes the “Special Period” of the 1990s, when Cuba faced extreme shortages after losing Soviet support. However, today’s challenges are compounded by decades of underinvestment in infrastructure and a population already pushed to its limits. “This will take an already dire situation to new extremes,” said Michael Galant, a senior research associate at the Center for Economic and Policy Research. “This is what a collapsing economy looks like.”
The Human Cost: Migration and Desperation
Between 2020 and 2024, Cuba’s population declined by 1.4 million, largely due to mass emigration. The oil crisis is expected to accelerate this exodus. “Fuel is a factor that affects everything,” said Juan Carlos Albizu-Campos, a Cuban economist. “People are going to feel that they are in worse conditions, and people who hadn’t considered leaving will feel the need to do so.”
At the Spanish embassy in Havana, lines of people seeking visas have grown longer. Ernesto Macías, a 53-year-old doctor, recently obtained Spanish citizenship and is now trying to secure a visa for his daughter. “I wouldn’t want Cuba to be invaded or anything like that,” he said. “But I’m sure people will continue to emigrate because there is no other way.”
U.S. Strategy: Pressure or Punishment?
The Trump administration’s aggressive seizures of oil tankers appear designed to destabilize Cuba’s government. “This sort of besiegement of Cuba is very intentional,” Galant said. “The goal is to cause indiscriminate suffering in the civilian population to instigate some sort of uprising or regime change.”
However, experts question whether this strategy will succeed. Cuba’s government has weathered decades of U.S. sanctions and economic hardship. “The Cuban people have experienced suffering for a very long time, and the Cuban government is very well versed in how to handle these situations,” Galant noted. The outcome remains uncertain, but the risks of widespread unrest and humanitarian crisis are escalating.
What Comes Next?
As the U.S. continues its crackdown, Cuba’s options are limited. The island’s military remains on high alert, and while protests could erupt, analysts doubt they would lead to regime change. “At the end of the day, someone is going to have to take the big pill,” said Andy S. Gómez, a retired dean of the School of International Studies at the University of Miami. “It’s either going to be Díaz-Canel or Prime Minister Manuel Marrero Cruz for not being able to solve the problems.”
For now, Cubans are focused on survival. “The Cuban people only care about one thing right now,” Gómez said. “They want to put food on the table, have electricity, have a place to live, have a job—and then what do we do about the government.”
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