Mexico’s government claims homicides have dropped 40% under President Claudia Sheinbaum, but missing data and shifting crime dynamics raise questions about whether the decline is real—or just a shift in how violence is measured.
The Numbers: A 40% Drop in Homicides
Mexico’s government announced a dramatic reduction in homicides, with the rate falling to 17.5 murders per 100,000 inhabitants in 2025—the lowest since 2016. President Claudia Sheinbaum, who took office in October 2024, attributed the 40% decline to a new security strategy emphasizing coordination among federal and state forces. The drop is significant compared to the peak of 29 killings per 100,000 in 2018, but experts caution that the data may not capture the full scope of violence.
Why the Decline Might Be Misleading
While the numbers suggest progress, key questions remain unanswered:
- Missing Data: Mexico’s public security secretariat and the National Statistics Institute have not yet released full 2025 figures. The latter’s data, based on death certificates, is considered more reliable but is delayed by months.
- Undercounted Violence: Lisa Sánchez of Mexico United Against Crime notes that some killings may be misclassified as accidents or disappearances. Over 133,000 people remain missing, and clandestine graves continue to be discovered.
- Shifting Crime Dynamics: Security analyst David Saucedo suggests that violence may be decreasing in some regions because criminal groups have consolidated power, reducing open conflict after eliminating rivals.
Historical Context: A Decade of Violence
Mexico’s homicide crisis escalated in 2006 after then-President Felipe Calderón launched a military-led campaign against drug cartels. The violence peaked during Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s presidency (2018–2024), whose “hugs, not bullets” policy faced criticism for failing to curb cartel power. Sheinbaum’s harder-line approach marks a shift, but whether it will sustain the decline remains uncertain.
Regional Realities: Where Violence Persists
Despite the national trend, organized crime continues to ravage states like Sinaloa, Michoacán, Jalisco, and Guanajuato, where cartels operate with near-impunity. The government’s strategy has yet to address the root causes of cartel dominance, including corruption and weak local governance.
What This Means for Mexico’s Future
The homicide decline is a rare bright spot in Mexico’s security landscape, but without transparent data and sustained reforms, the progress could be fragile. If criminal groups are simply consolidating power rather than being dismantled, the lull in violence may prove temporary.
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