Forget the preseason favorites – the NFL MVP race is now a thrilling, unexpected showdown. Matthew Stafford and Jonathan Taylor, once long shots, have delivered historic performances, propelling themselves into elite contention and challenging the very definition of an MVP season.
As the NFL season charges into its critical second half, the race for the coveted AP NFL MVP award has been dramatically reshaped. What started with established superstars dominating the conversation has quickly pivoted to an improbable, exhilarating battle led by veteran quarterback Matthew Stafford and electrifying running back Jonathan Taylor. Their performances aren’t just winning games; they’re rewriting record books and forcing the entire league to take notice, proving that in sports, the unexpected is often the most compelling story.
The Unlikely Frontrunner: Matthew Stafford’s Career-Defining Stretch
Matthew Stafford, a player who turns 38 in February, has become the betting favorite to win the AP NFL MVP, a remarkable shift given his preseason odds. BetMGM reported that over 15 players had better opening odds than the Los Angeles Rams’ signal-caller, who now stands at an impressive plus-275. His recent dominance has been nothing short of historic.
Stafford’s ascent to favorite status was cemented after he threw four more touchdown passes in the Rams’ 42-26 win over San Francisco. This performance pushed him into an exclusive club, making him the first player ever to record at least four touchdown passes and no interceptions in three consecutive games. His six-game stretch of 20 touchdowns and zero interceptions is a testament to his precision and leadership.
Should Stafford maintain this trajectory and win the award, he would become the oldest player to claim his first MVP title and the third oldest overall, trailing only legends Tom Brady (40 in 2017) and Aaron Rodgers (38 in 2021). It’s a late-career surge that underscores his enduring talent and the Rams’ offensive prowess.
Jonathan Taylor’s Historic Ground Game Puts Running Backs Back in the MVP Conversation
Even more surprising than Stafford’s rise is the MVP candidacy of Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor. With more than 40 players initially having better odds, Taylor is now tied with two-time winner Patrick Mahomes for the third-best odds, an incredible feat for a position that rarely sees MVP recognition in the modern NFL. His quest to become the first running back to win the award since Adrian Peterson in 2012 highlights the sheer dominance he’s displayed.
Taylor’s latest masterpiece came in a win over the Atlanta Falcons in Berlin, Germany, where he rushed for an astounding 244 yards and three touchdowns. This historic outing placed him alongside football icons Jim Brown, Adrian Peterson, and Derrick Henry as only the fourth player ever with multiple games featuring at least 200 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns.
His 17 total touchdowns are tied for the third most by any player through their team’s first 10 games, trailing only LaDainian Tomlinson’s 22 in 2006 and Shaun Alexander’s 19 in 2005. Both Tomlinson and Alexander went on to win MVP in those seasons, setting the stage for Taylor to potentially follow suit and redefine the value of a dominant running back in the MVP conversation.
Rookie Revolution: Drake Maye’s Immediate Impact and Sam Darnold’s Resurgence
The MVP narrative isn’t solely focused on veterans. New England’s Drake Maye has surged to second-best MVP odds, powering the Patriots to an unexpected 8-2 start. The rookie quarterback has maintained a passer rating of at least 100 in eight of his 10 starts, boasting an impressive 113.9 mark on the season. Maye joins an elite group, alongside Patrick Mahomes and Dak Prescott, as the only players aged 23 or younger to achieve a rating of 100 or higher in eight of their team’s first 10 games.
Adding to the league’s quarterback surprises, Seattle’s Sam Darnold also finds himself among the MVP contenders, holding the sixth-best odds. After signing with the Seahawks as a free agent in March, Darnold’s performance has been exceptional. His 9.92 yards per attempt are on pace to be the highest for any qualifying quarterback since Norm Van Brocklin averaged 10.1 in 1954, according to AP News. If Darnold were to win, he’d join Jim Brown (1957) and Earl Morrall (1968) as only the third player to earn MVP honors in their first season with a new team.
The NFL’s Coaching Carousel: High Draft Picks and Quick Exits
Beyond the MVP discussions, the NFL continues its ruthless trend of rapid coaching changes, often linked to the high stakes of drafting franchise quarterbacks. The New York Giants’ decision to fire coach Brian Daboll less than seven months after selecting quarterback Jaxson Dart in the first round exemplifies this pattern. This move mirrors the Tennessee Titans’ recent firing of Brian Callahan after just six games with No. 1 overall pick Cam Ward.
Over the past decade, 35 quarterbacks have been taken in the first round. Alarmingly, eight teams have fired their head coach during that rookie quarterback’s first season, and another eight made a change before the start of the second season. This pressure cooker environment shows that teams are increasingly unwilling to wait for a quarterback to develop under an existing regime, opting for a clean slate.
The 2022 coaching class, which included Daboll, has seen a significant attrition rate. Only three of the 10 new coaches hired that season remain in their roles midway through their fourth year: Tampa Bay’s Todd Bowles and Minnesota’s Kevin O’Connell appear stable, while Miami’s Mike McDaniels faces a more tenuous situation after GM Chris Grier was let go last month. The swift dismissals of coaches like Nathaniel Hackett in Denver, Lovie Smith in Houston, and Josh McDaniels in Las Vegas underscore the immediate demand for results in the NFL.
Saints Break a Decades-Long Rookie QB Drought
In a story of breaking curses, the New Orleans Saints finally ended their 44-year wait for a rookie quarterback to win a start. Second-round pick Tyler Shough achieved this milestone in his second career start, leading the Saints to a victory over Carolina. The last time a Saints rookie QB secured a win was Dave Wilson on November 8, 1981, against the Rams. Since then, Saints rookies had compiled an 0-11 record, a testament to the franchise’s struggle with developing or utilizing young signal-callers.
This drought is remarkable when compared to the rest of the league, which saw 567 regular-season games won by rookie quarterbacks during that same period. While teams like Chicago notched 33 such wins and 18 teams had at least 20, the Saints, along with Green Bay (three wins) and Kansas City (one by Patrick Mahomes in Week 17 of 2017), stood out for their lack of rookie QB success. Shough’s win marks a significant turning point, offering a new sense of hope for the Saints’ future, as reported by AP News.
Special Teams and Defensive Masterclasses: The Other Game-Changers
The weekend also featured extraordinary performances in special teams and defense that dramatically altered game outcomes. The New York Jets achieved a franchise first in their 27-20 win over Cleveland. Kene Nwangwu returned a kickoff 99 yards for a touchdown in the first quarter, followed just 36 seconds later by Isaiah Williams’ 74-yard punt return for a score. This marked the first time in Jets history they recorded both a kickoff and punt return touchdown in the same game, a feat not seen in the NFL since Baltimore in 2017, and in the first quarter since the Chargers in 2007. Their victory was even more improbable given they gained only 169 yards of offense and had no takeaways, breaking an 0-216 Super Bowl era streak for teams with such statistics.
Similarly, the Seattle Seahawks benefited from a defensive masterclass by DeMarcus Lawrence, who became only the second player in the last 75 years to return two fumbles for touchdowns in the same game, a feat last accomplished by Jeremy Chinn in 2020. These two defensive touchdowns propelled Seattle to a 38-point first half, their third game this season with at least 31 points before halftime. This makes them only the fourth team ever to achieve this three times in a single season, joining the Rams (1980), Raiders (1968), and Chargers (1961). Historically, Seattle had only achieved this three times in their previous 331 games, underscoring the magnitude of their current defensive output, as highlighted by AP News.
What’s Next for the MVP Race and Beyond?
The 2025 NFL season has delivered a refreshing dose of unpredictability, particularly in the MVP race. The rise of long shots like Matthew Stafford and Jonathan Taylor, coupled with the immediate impact of rookies like Drake Maye and the surprising efficiency of Sam Darnold, ensures a compelling finish. Fans are buzzing, debates are raging, and fantasy leagues are being thrown into chaos. Will a veteran finally get his due, or can a dominant running back or electrifying rookie redefine the award?
Beyond individual accolades, the coaching carousel continues to spin, illustrating the cutthroat nature of team building in the modern NFL. The Saints’ rookie QB breakthrough and the special teams and defensive heroics across the league remind us that every facet of the game contributes to a team’s narrative. As the playoffs draw closer, every snap, every touchdown, and every coaching decision will be scrutinized, shaping legacies and etching new chapters into NFL history.
