As the fantasy football trade deadline approaches, astute managers are turning to advanced metrics like outside run rates to identify undervalued running backs. This strategic approach, which focuses on backs excelling in plays that yield a higher explosive run rate, points to players like D’Andre Swift, RJ Harvey, Brashard Smith, Aaron Jones Sr., Derrick Henry, and Kenneth Walker III as prime acquisition targets with significant upside for the rest of the 2025 season.
For years, fantasy football managers have sought an edge, a hidden metric to unearth the next breakout star. Our community has championed the significance of outside run rates as a critical predictor of running back success. This isn’t just a hunch; it’s backed by data, showcasing a clear advantage for backs who can consistently bounce runs to the perimeter.
According to Next Gen Stats, running back carries directed between the tackles have yielded a 7.9% explosive run rate this year. In stark contrast, outside runs boast a significantly higher 12.7% explosive run rate. This means that a running back’s ability to get outside the offensive line dramatically increases their chances of producing a big chunk play, which translates directly into valuable fantasy points. For further details on how these metrics are tracked, you can refer to insights from NFL.com’s Next Gen Stats portal.
As the trade deadline looms, understanding this metric becomes paramount. You want to acquire backs who thrive in outside run schemes, especially when they face defenses that struggle to contain such plays. It’s about finding the right player in the right situation to maximize your roster’s potential.
Prime Running Back Targets Based on Outside Run Prowess
Here’s a breakdown of the running backs who exhibit strong outside run profiles and why they could be game-changers for your fantasy squad:
RJ Harvey, Denver Broncos
- The rookie has had a turbulent season, but his 59.1% outside run rate demands attention. While his three-touchdown performance on just eight touches was an anomaly, it showcased his big-play ability.
- Harvey has been described as an “Adam Dunn-type” runner—capable of incredible home runs but also prone to strikeouts. His 3.73 YPC on outside carries is modest, but his explosive 5.72 YPC on inside runs highlights untapped potential.
- A high run stuff rate of 34.6% has plagued him, but given his athletic profile and college charting, these numbers are likely to normalize.
- With J.K. Dobbins’ history of injuries, it’s highly probable Harvey will see an increased workload. If given the opportunity, Harvey could explode for significant fantasy production.
D’Andre Swift, Chicago Bears
- Despite the fantasy community leaning towards selling Swift due to Kyle Monangai’s encroaching snap share, this presents a prime buying opportunity. Swift’s current average draft position (ADP) in Round 6 (RB 24) makes him a significant value, especially considering his production.
- Swift boasts a 68% outside rush rate, ranking fourth-highest among RBs with 50+ carries. His 5.6 YPC average on outside runs is impressive, surpassing even elite backs like Bijan Robinson (5.36) and De’Von Achane (5.41), despite a lower 2.59 YPC on inside runs.
- His upcoming schedule is enticing, with matchups against Cincinnati, the New York Giants, and Minnesota. The Bengals have been highly vulnerable to opposing running backs, the Giants concede significant yards per carry, and the Vikings rank low in rush yards allowed. This stretch could see Swift deliver strong RB1 upside.
Brashard Smith, Kansas City Chiefs
- If Smith is available on your waiver wire, grab him immediately. The Chiefs’ backfield is dealing with injuries to key players.
- Isiah Pacheco is currently nursing a knee/ankle issue, and Kareem Hunt also recently sustained an injury. These situations open a clear pathway for Smith to potentially step into a significant role.
- Smith’s blistering 4.39 40-yard dash time and strong pass-catching skills are intriguing, but his remarkable 72% outside run rate is what truly stands out.
- His running style aligns well with the Chiefs’ potential preference for outside runs, given Pacheco’s 57.7% outside run rate. While Hunt’s speed has depreciated, Smith offers an explosive alternative.
- Smith’s value hinges on injuries to Pacheco or Hunt, but with both players currently battling ailments, his opportunity could come sooner rather than later.
Aaron Jones Sr., Minnesota Vikings
- Acquiring Aaron Jones Sr. right now is a bold move, but it could pay off handsomely. The season-ending injury to Carson Wentz might lead to more stacked boxes, but with dynamic receivers like Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, defenses still can’t ignore the outside.
- Minnesota’s offensive coordinator, Kevin O’Connell, is likely to lean heavily on the run game to support the backup quarterback, which bodes well for Jones.
- Jones maintains a sturdy 61.1% outside run rate. While his first game back from injured reserve was underwhelming (5 carries, 15 yards), his snap share (53% compared to Jordan Mason’s 34%) indicates he was immediately reinstated as the dominant starter.
- Given last week’s performance, Jones’ trade value couldn’t be lower, making him an ideal “buy low” candidate. As he regains full health, his efficiency and workload are bound to increase.
Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens
- The veteran Derrick Henry continues to be a poster child for the importance of outside run rates. He operates at a 64% outside run clip, and his performance clearly shows why this metric matters.
- Henry averages 4.89 YPC on outside runs compared to 4.31 YPC between the tackles. Furthermore, four of his six rushing touchdowns this season have come from outside carries.
- Despite his massive frame, Henry consistently generates more explosive plays when he gets to the perimeter, demonstrating that speed and vision in open space are critical for even power backs.
Kenneth Walker III, Seattle Seahawks
- Despite a recent cold stretch, Kenneth Walker III is a fantastic outside runner with significant upside. His 61.1% outside rush rate and strong 4.8 YPC when bouncing to the perimeter underscore his talent.
- His upcoming schedule is incredibly favorable. He will face Washington, Arizona, Tennessee, and Minnesota in four of his next five games.
- The Commanders rank dead last in yards per carry allowed to outside runs (5.5 YPC) and have given up the most touchdowns (10) on such plays. The Cardinals have allowed the third-most rush yards on outside runs, while the Titans have been consistently gashed by running backs, allowing 16+ PPR points to six consecutive backs. The Vikings are also among the bottom ten in rush yards allowed to running backs.
- With such a weak schedule ahead, it’s only a matter of time before the coaching staff fully realizes Walker’s superior talent over Zach Charbonnet and commits to feeding him the volume he deserves.
