Madagascar is again at a crossroads: Colonel Michael Randrianirina is set to be sworn in as president, following a coup that forced Andry Rajoelina from power. This article explores the immediate aftermath, the critical role of Gen Z, and the significant implications for the nation’s future.
The political landscape of Madagascar has undergone a dramatic transformation with Colonel Michael Randrianirina, commander of the elite CAPSAT army unit, declaring himself president. This move follows weeks of intense, youth-led protests that culminated in the ousting of civilian President Andry Rajoelina, who has since condemned the takeover and refused to step down.
Colonel Randrianirina is scheduled to be sworn in as the “President for the Refoundation of the Republic of Madagascar” during a formal hearing, a ceremony he stated would be performed by the High Constitutional Court. This declaration comes amidst widespread international criticism and a swift suspension of Madagascar’s membership by the African Union, which demands the restoration of constitutional order and elections.
The Swift Ascent of Colonel Randrianirina
The military’s takeover was announced on Tuesday, October 14, 2025, shortly after parliament impeached President Rajoelina. Colonel Randrianirina, who previously played a role in the 2009 coup that brought Rajoelina to power, broke ranks with him last week, urging soldiers not to fire on protesters. He initially stated the military had taken power and dissolved all institutions except the lower house of parliament, later clarifying he would not dissolve most state institutions.
Despite international condemnation, Randrianirina insisted the takeover was “not a coup.” He told journalists, “A coup is when soldiers enter the presidential palace with weapons. They shoot. There is bloodshed. This is not a coup.” He further argued that the approval of the country’s top court for his appointment showed the takeover “follows the legal process,” though reports also suggested the court’s judges might have been pressured to sign off on his ascension, as noted by The Associated Press.
Randrianirina has pledged elections within 18 to 24 months, with a military-led committee and a transitional government ruling in the interim. He also expressed a desire to include members of the youth-led Gen Z movement in his administration, recognizing their pivotal role in the recent protests.
International Outcry and Regional Context
The international community has been quick to condemn the events. UN Secretary-General António Guterres denounced the “unconstitutional change of government” and called for “the return to constitutional order and the rule of law,” as reported by the United Nations. The African Union announced Madagascar’s immediate suspension, dispatching a delegation for talks on restoring constitutional order. The Southern African Development Community (SADC) also sent a fact-finding mission.
Madagascar’s situation echoes a broader trend across Africa, particularly in former French colonies. Since 2020, countries like Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Gabon, and Guinea have also experienced military takeovers, highlighting a troubling return to military rule in parts of the continent.
The Voice of a Nation: Gen Z and the People’s Grievances
The military takeover was catalyzed by weeks of escalating protests that began on September 25. Led primarily by a movement dubbed “Gen Z Madagascar,” the demonstrations initially focused on immediate concerns like chronic water and power shortages. However, they quickly expanded to broader grievances including widespread corruption, poor governance, and a severe lack of basic services and opportunities.
With an average age of less than 20 years and approximately three-quarters of its population living in poverty, Madagascar’s youth are particularly vulnerable to economic and social instability. Their uprising resonated deeply, mirroring youth-led movements that have challenged ruling elites in other nations, such as Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh. Protesters in Antananarivo, the capital, celebrated the takeover, viewing the military’s intervention as a response to their calls for change.
Professor Olufemi Taiwo of Africana Studies at Cornell University described the youth movement as “an expression of understandable grievances over government failures,” emphasizing that “this is a civil society uprising and its resolution should not involve the military.” This highlights the complex dynamic of public support for military intervention when civilian governments are perceived as failing.
A Nation’s History of Instability
Madagascar, an Indian Ocean island nation with a population of about 30 million, has a long and turbulent history since gaining independence from France in 1960. The country has endured numerous coups and attempted coups, leading to persistent political instability. Notably, Andry Rajoelina himself first came to power through a military-backed coup in 2009, serving as president of a transitional government for five years before being elected in 2018 and re-elected in 2023.
The nation has struggled with deep-seated economic challenges. According to the World Bank, Madagascar is one of the poorest countries globally, with around 80 percent of its population living in poverty. Its GDP per capita plunged 45% between 1960 and 2020, reflecting decades of underdevelopment and political turmoil.
The Road Ahead: Challenges and Promises
As Colonel Randrianirina prepares to assume presidential powers, the future of Madagascar remains uncertain. His promise of a transitional military rule for up to two years before new elections offers a potential path to stability, but the international community’s insistence on an immediate return to constitutional order creates significant diplomatic pressure.
The new leadership faces the immense challenge of addressing the root causes of the protests: chronic poverty, corruption, and a severe lack of essential services. Integrating the demands and energy of the Gen Z movement into governance will be crucial for any lasting solution. As behind-the-scenes negotiations unfold with regional and international bodies, the world watches closely to see if Madagascar can finally break free from its cycle of political instability and pave a genuine path towards progress for its struggling population.
