After a tumultuous Week 5, Week 6 brought a reprieve, solidifying key survivor pool strategies. For Week 7 of the 2024 NFL season, the Washington Commanders and Kansas City Chiefs stand out as prime choices, backed by strong performances and favorable matchups, offering distinct paths for ‘Colts people’ and ‘Lions people’ alike to advance towards the coveted end-season glory.
The 2024 NFL season has been anything but predictable for survivor pool participants, with upsets frequently shattering dreams. However, Week 6 finally offered a glimmer of hope, providing a reprieve from the chaos. Favorites dominated, going 9-3-1 against the spread, while road favorites were an impressive 8-0 ATS. This strong showing allowed many pools to reset and for the SI Betting team to go 2-for-2 with their picks, the Houston Texans and Philadelphia Eagles.
As we near the halfway point of the 2024 season with a 15-game slate in Week 7, the challenge intensifies. With fewer obvious favorites available, savvy strategy is paramount. This in-depth guide will break down the top choices, explore strategic considerations, and help you navigate the treacherous waters of Week 7 survivor pools, focusing on the scenarios for contestants who used either the Colts or Lions in Week 5.
Navigating the Remnants: Who’s Still Standing?
The early weeks of the season offered a plethora of options, but Week 5 proved to be a significant culling point for many survivor pools. Those who successfully navigated that week likely did so by selecting either the Indianapolis Colts or the Detroit Lions. This distinction creates two primary strategic paths for Week 7, as available teams and future utility become key considerations.
Success in a survivor pool isn’t just about picking the most likely winner each week; it’s about managing your resources. As Matt Russell of Yahoo Sports highlights, you’ll need 18 teams to make it through the entire season, meaning you’ll eventually have to trust a team ranked as low as 18th in the league.
The Betting Market’s Pulse: Money Lines and Power Ratings
The betting market provides invaluable insights into a team’s likelihood of winning. By converting money lines into implied win probabilities (IWP) and adjusting for sportsbook hold, we can gauge the safest picks. Furthermore, understanding a team’s market power rating, which estimates its value to the point spread, helps in planning for future weeks.
Here’s a snapshot of the betting market’s current top-18 teams and their estimated value to the point spread, as detailed in recent analysis:
- Chiefs: 19.2
- Packers: 18.6
- Lions: 18.2
- Rams: 17.3
- Bills: 17.3
- Ravens: 17.3
- Eagles: 16.5
- Colts: 15.9
- Broncos: 15.9
- Seahawks: 15.7
- Commanders: 15.7
- Chargers: 15.4
- Buccaneers: 15.1
- Patriots: 14.6
- Jaguars: 14.3
- Steelers: 14.3
- Texans: 14.0
- 49ers: 13.5
This list is crucial for long-term planning, as using a top-tier team early means sacrificing their availability in potentially tougher future matchups.
Week 7’s Top Choices: Paths for Every Contestant
Given the Week 5 landscape, here’s a breakdown of the best Week 7 picks, tailored to whether you’ve already used the Colts or Lions.
The “Colts People” Path
If you’ve already burned the Indianapolis Colts, who aren’t an option this week anyway with a pick’em game against the Chargers, you have strong choices for Week 7.
1. Kansas City Chiefs (84.5% IWP) vs. Raiders
The Chiefs, despite a modest 3-3 record, are approaching a point where they are reliable against almost anyone, especially with Rashee Rice’s anticipated Week 7 return rounding out their offense. They are a clear top pick, with a projected win probability significantly higher than other options this week. While their schedule features tricky spots later in the season, including two games against the Broncos and matchups against high-caliber quarterbacks, their Week 7 fixture against the Raiders presents a compelling opportunity. For those concerned about burning them, potential future uses include Week 16 at Titans (KC -11) and Week 18 at Raiders (KC -8.5), but risking it this week may be the smart play given their dominance.
2. New England Patriots (74.9% IWP) over Titans
The Patriots face a Titans team that has struggled significantly, ranked No. 31 in DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) and No. 32 in offensive DVOA. Despite an interim coaching change with Mike McCoy at the helm, the Titans mustered only 225 total yards in a recent loss to the Raiders. The Patriots, with rookie quarterback Drake Maye (ranked No. 6 by PFF) showing promise, present a solid option. However, given their upcoming home games against the Browns (NE -7 in Week 8), Jets (NE -9.5 in Week 11), and Giants (NE -5 in Week 13), it might be strategically sound to save the Patriots for a more favorable home spot.
3. Detroit Lions (69.0% IWP) over Buccaneers
The Lions returning home after a loss, facing a potentially banged-up Buccaneers squad, offers a favorable setup. Tampa Bay, at 5-1, could afford an excusable loss here, making Detroit a tempting pick before their bye week. However, the Lions also have enticing matchups in Week 9 vs. Vikings (DET -6.5) and Week 12 vs. Giants (DET -7.5). Saving them for Week 12, especially with the Giants’ recent mini-resurgence, could be a more optimal long-term strategy.
The “Lions People” Path
If you used the Detroit Lions in Week 5, your options for Week 7 shift slightly, but the Kansas City Chiefs remain a top-tier target.
1. Kansas City Chiefs (84.5% IWP) over Raiders
With 94.7% of Circa Survivor contestants still having the Chiefs available, they are expected to be the most popular pick this week. Their high implied win probability makes them an undeniably safe choice. Despite their 3-3 record, the Chiefs are still the market’s top team. While saving them for later weeks like Week 16 or 18 is tempting, their Week 7 matchup is too good to pass up for many. It’s important to remember that even the best teams can face challenges, and relying on them to perform in Week 18, when playoff scenarios can alter motivations, is a bold move.
2. New England Patriots (74.9% IWP) over Titans
The Patriots have quietly climbed into the top-18 power rankings after road victories over the Bills and Saints. This Week 7 road game against the struggling Titans is an appealing matchup. However, Thursday Night Football games can be unpredictable, with big underdogs pulling off upsets in recent weeks. Like the “Colts people,” “Lions people” might consider saving the Patriots for one of their more comfortable home games in Week 8, Week 11, or Week 13.
3. Denver Broncos (75.4% IWP) over Giants
Surprisingly, 43.6% of Circa contestants still have the Broncos available despite their past matchups against weaker opponents. They face a Giants team that has shown some life with rookies Jaxson Dart and Cam Skattebo, and the crucial return of star left tackle Andrew Thomas. While the Broncos offer a decent win probability, saving them for Week 10 against the Raiders (DEN -8) could be a slightly safer bet. However, given the limited top-tier choices this week, the Broncos represent a viable, if slightly riskier, alternative if you’ve already used the Chiefs and Patriots in other scenarios.
Deep Dive: The Washington Commanders — A Hidden Gem for Week 7?
While not explicitly part of the “Colts/Lions people” paths in some analyses, the Washington Commanders are highlighted as a premier Week 7 survivor pick, especially for those who haven’t used them yet. They’ve started the 2024 season strong at 4-2, with their only losses coming to fellow 4-2 teams, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Baltimore Ravens.
In Week 7, Jayden Daniels and company are heavily favored at home against the 1-5 Carolina Panthers. The Panthers have been the worst road team in the NFL since the start of the 2022 season, compiling a 3-17 straight-up record. They struggle offensively, ranking 21st in yards per play and allowing the sixth-most yards per play in the league. The Commanders, meanwhile, are a perfect 2-0 against the spread at home this season and boast an impressive average point differential of +12.0 on their home field, compared to the Panthers’ -16.3 average scoring margin on the road.
Even with concerns about Washington’s defense, especially without Jonathan Allen for the season, their offense has been arguably one of the best in the NFL and is expected to overpower Carolina, making this a potentially sweat-free win. For up-to-date team statistics, you can refer to official NFL team stats.
Strategic Considerations and Looking Ahead
Week 7 calls for a blend of confidence and caution. While the Kansas City Chiefs are the undeniable top choice with their high win probability and the strategic return of key offensive pieces, remember the long game. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes famously boasts a sterling record as an underdog, but avoiding unnecessary risks is paramount in survivor pools.
Don’t fall into the trap of trying to be too clever by picking a perceived long shot, especially when clear favorites are available. The goal is to survive, not to make a statement. Evaluate your remaining team options, consider their future schedules, and make a pick that maximizes your probability of advancing while preserving valuable assets for later in the season. Saddle up; there are still many weeks to navigate to ultimate glory.
