Forget the hype around Nvidia; a quiet revolution is brewing with Oracle. This cloud infrastructure powerhouse is accumulating a staggering revenue backlog and making strategic moves in the booming AI sector, suggesting it could realistically outpace even the current market leader to become the first company to hit a $10 trillion valuation.
The race to a $10 trillion market capitalization is one of the most exciting narratives unfolding on Wall Street. Currently, Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) stands as the world’s largest company with a market cap of $4.5 trillion, fueling widespread speculation that it could be the first to reach this monumental milestone. Its stronghold in the artificial intelligence (AI) semiconductor space, coupled with trillions of dollars earmarked for AI data center infrastructure over the next five years, certainly makes it a formidable contender. However, the path ahead for Nvidia is not without its challenges, particularly the intensifying competition from rivals such as Broadcom and Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD).
While Nvidia captures most of the attention, another enterprise technology giant, currently much smaller, is quietly demonstrating the underlying fundamentals and strategic positioning that could see it leapfrog the chipmaker. We’re talking about Oracle (NYSE: ORCL), a company whose recent performance and future outlook suggest it might just be the dark horse in this unprecedented wealth creation race.
Oracle’s Unseen Momentum: A Cloud and AI Powerhouse
Oracle’s stock performance in 2025 has been nothing short of impressive, surging 76% compared to Nvidia’s 36% gains this year. This rally has propelled Oracle’s market cap to $835 billion, solidifying its position as the 12th largest company globally. What’s driving this growth, and why is Oracle, historically known for its database software, now being discussed in the same breath as Nvidia for a $10 trillion valuation?
The answer lies in its rapidly expanding cloud infrastructure and its pivotal role in the proliferation of AI. Oracle’s global data center infrastructure is becoming the backbone for major cloud computing companies, governments, and AI innovators running intensive AI workloads. The demand for Oracle’s cloud infrastructure segment is so robust that the company has struggled to keep pace, leading to a significant increase in its Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO).
The Power of Oracle’s Backlog: Contracts Fueling Future Growth
RPO represents the total value of contracts that are yet to be fulfilled, essentially a glimpse into future revenue. In the first quarter of fiscal 2026 (ending August 31), Oracle’s overall revenue grew by 12% year over year. However, its RPO exploded by an astonishing 359% year over year, reaching $455 billion. This surge was primarily driven by four multi-billion-dollar contracts with three different customers, as reported by The Motley Fool.
Management indicated in September that Oracle was on track to secure “several additional multi-billion-dollar customers,” expecting RPO to exceed half a trillion dollars within months. This prediction quickly materialized with a groundbreaking five-year deal with OpenAI, valued at a staggering $300 billion, commencing in 2027. This single contract alone pushes Oracle’s RPO well above $750 billion, potentially nearing the $1 trillion mark when other deals in the pipeline are factored in. This massive backlog provides an unparalleled level of revenue visibility and predictability, suggesting a sustained period of accelerated growth.
Beyond its core infrastructure, Oracle is also a leader in multicloud database services, allowing customers to run its database offerings across major cloud platforms like Google, Microsoft, and Amazon. The demand for these solutions is skyrocketing, with multicloud database revenue soaring an incredible 1,529% in the fiscal first quarter. To meet this escalating demand, Oracle plans to expand its multicloud data center count from 34 to 71. This strategic expansion positions Oracle perfectly to capitalize on the immense potential of the AI-focused cloud computing market, which is projected to reach $3.7 trillion in revenue by 2034, contributing to an overall cloud computing market revenue of $5.1 trillion in the same year, according to analysis by The Motley Fool.
Charting the Course to a $10 Trillion Valuation
While Oracle’s growth in the most recent fiscal quarter might not have been spectacular on its face, its rapidly expanding revenue pipeline paints a clear picture of future acceleration. Unlike many companies whose growth is heavily reliant on immediate market conditions, Oracle’s substantial RPO acts as a powerful engine for sustained expansion.
Oracle’s RPO significantly surpasses the combined revenue expected over the next three fiscal years. With new contracts continually bolstering this backlog, revenue growth is poised to accelerate well beyond the immediate forecast. In contrast, Nvidia’s impressive revenue growth is projected to moderate, facing increasing competition in the AI chip market.
Consider the trajectory: if Oracle maintains an annual revenue growth rate of 40% for five years following fiscal 2028, its revenue could reach an astounding $645 billion by 2033, building on a fiscal 2028 base of $120 billion. This forecast aligns with the projected $5.1 trillion annual revenue of the broader cloud computing market by 2034.
Currently, Oracle’s stock trades at 14 times sales. However, with accelerated growth on the horizon, the market could assign it a higher premium. A price-to-sales ratio of 16, combined with the projected revenue growth, would be sufficient for Oracle to achieve a $10 trillion market capitalization. Meanwhile, Nvidia might see its valuation adjusted downward as its growth moderates and competition intensifies. This scenario strongly suggests that Oracle could indeed be the first to reach the $10 trillion mark, a monumental achievement in corporate history.
The Broader Trillion-Dollar Landscape
While Oracle and Nvidia vie for the $10 trillion crown, other high-growth stocks are also on paths to reach the $1 trillion club, as highlighted by The Motley Fool. Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD), with its current market cap of around $275 billion, is making significant strides in AI processors, with its MI300x silicon chosen by major players like Meta Platforms and Microsoft. The AI hardware market alone is expected to swell from $600 million to nearly $2.6 trillion by 2032, according to Precedence Research, offering AMD substantial runway.
Similarly, Visa (NYSE: V), already halfway to $1 trillion with a market cap over $500 billion, continues its consistent growth as card-based payments dominate global commerce. Even e-commerce disruptor PDD Holdings (NASDAQ: PDD), the company behind Temu and Pinduoduo, despite being further from the $1 trillion mark at under $200 billion, is exhibiting hypergrowth, with third-quarter revenue up 94% year over year. These companies underscore the dynamic nature of market leadership and the diverse pathways to astronomical valuations.
The Long-Term Investor’s Edge
For investors seeking long-term growth, Oracle presents a compelling narrative. Its strategic shift to cloud infrastructure and its deepening ties to the AI ecosystem position it at the forefront of two of the most significant technological transformations of our time. The massive, sticky contracts reflected in its RPO provide a stable and accelerating revenue base, mitigating some of the volatility inherent in faster-growing tech sectors. As the demand for AI workloads continues to surge, Oracle’s expanded data center footprint and multicloud capabilities will be indispensable.
The concept of expected return, which factors in historical rates and future probabilities, provides a framework for evaluating such long-term plays. While not a guarantee, the robust tailwinds from the cloud and AI markets, combined with Oracle’s execution in securing foundational contracts, establish a strong basis for anticipating significant future gains. As articulated by The Motley Fool, Oracle’s accelerating growth potential and attractive valuation metrics suggest it could rewrite the script on which company reaches the $10 trillion mark first, offering a unique opportunity for those with a long-term investment horizon.
