Incumbent Daniel Noboa seeks re-election, with Luisa Gonzalez seen as his main rival.
Voters in Ecuador are set to pick their next president in a race dominated by the country’s security crisis and struggling economy.
Polls opened at 7am local time (12:00 GMT) on Sunday and will close 10 hours later (22:00 GMT).
Fifteen candidates are challenging hard-right incumbent President Daniel Noboa, the 37-year-old son of a billionaire banana magnate who ascended to power just 14 months ago. His top challenger is left-wing lawmaker Luisa Gonzalez, a 47-year-old protege of former President Rafael Correa.
Gonzalez will have to dramatically outperform pre-election polls to beat frontrunner Noboa, whose iron-fisted – or “mano dura” – approach to crime is considered by experts a key factor in his projected lead.
If no candidate gets 50 percent of the vote, or 40 percent with a 10-point lead on the nearest rival, there will be a second-round run-off on April 13.
‘Ecuador wants to keep changing’
The campaigns have largely focused on concerns about the slumping economy and cartel turf wars that have turned Ecuador from one of the safest countries in the world to one of the most dangerous.
Noboa, first elected in 2023 to finish out his predecessor’s term, says his deployment of the military on the streets and within prisons has helped reduce violent deaths by 15 percent, led to a drastic fall in prison violence, and facilitated the capture of major gang leaders.
“Today, Ecuador has changed and wants to keep changing, it wants to consolidate its triumph,” Noboa said at a closing campaign rally on Thursday in the capital, Quito. “This Sunday, reclaim your ability to dream.”
But the president’s rivals have said more needs to be done to fight the drug trade-related crime that has rocked Ecuador in recent years.
Gonzalez says she would respond to crime with military and police operations, pursue allegedly corrupt judges and prosecutors and implement a social spending plan in the most violent areas.
“We can’t talk about controlling violence without thinking of social justice, of building an Ecuador with peace, not with war,” said Gonzalez. “We are moving toward this transformation with each one of you … we’ll save ourselves, together.”
‘Worst crisis in half a century’
One of the world’s youngest leaders, Noboa has bet his political future on a tough approach to crime, which has grown rampant as rival gangs fight over territory for cocaine smuggling.
During his first term, he declared a state of emergency, deployed the army across the country and gathered extraordinary executive powers to curb the violence.
Human rights groups believe that Noboa’s aggressive use of the armed forces has led to abuses, including the murder of four boys whose charred bodies were found near an army base.
But analysts say Noboa may have the edge, as rising cartel violence and record-high homicide rates continue to fuel support for strongman leadership.
“Our research shows that the majority of voters want a sort of dictatorship, they want that iron fist whatever the ideology behind it is,” analyst Omar Maluk told Al Jazeera.
“They still want a strong man who shows no weakness or sensibilities, even if these measures have mostly failed so far, because this January, Ecuador reached a world record of 700 killings in a single month.”
The security crisis has hit the economy, which likely entered a recession last year.
Noboa has been forced to turn to the International Monetary Fund to build a $4bn fiscal war chest.
Gonzalez, easing fears that she may scrap the IMF deal if elected, said on Saturday that the United Nations agency was “welcome” to help, so long as it does not insist on policies that hurt working families.
