History suggests Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will trump Nikola Jokic for MVP award

This year’s NBA MVP race is widely seen as a contest between Shai Gilgeous-Alexander of the OKC Thunder and Nikola Jokic of the Denver Nuggets. While there’s no defined set of criteria for the award and it ultimately comes down to the choices of the voting panel, both players have presented compelling cases.

One argument for MVP often favors the top player on the best team, a narrative that fits Gilgeous-Alexander. However, Jokic — who is averaging a triple-double and arguably having his best individual season yet despite being a three-time MVP winner — has also built a strong argument.

Stat Mamba on X (formerly Twitter) pointed out that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leads the NBA in points per game for a team that has won at least 65 games in a season. This follows the OKC Thunder’s 136-120 victory over the LA Lakers on Tuesday, which improved their record to 65-14.

The stat showed that Gilgeous-Alexander’s 32.7 points per game topped the list, with Kareem Abdul-Jabbar in 1971 (31.7 ppg), James Harden in 2018 (30.4 ppg), Michael Jordan in 1996 (30.4 ppg) and Steph Curry in 2016 and Jordan in 1992 (both at 30.1 ppg).

All the players trailing Gilgeous-Alexander in that list went on to win MVP in those seasons.

ESPN’s MVP straw poll predicts Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will edge out Nikola Jokic for first MVP

ESPN conducts an MVP straw poll that simulates the NBA’s voting process.

In the latest straw poll, released earlier this month, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander received 77 first-place votes and 23 second-place votes, earning a total of 931 points. Nikola Jokic received all the first- and second-place votes Gilgeous-Alexander didn’t get and accumulated 769 points for second place.

Giannis Antetokounmpo came in third with 53 third-place votes, 37 fourth-place votes and five fifth-place votes for 381 points, followed by Jayson Tatum in fourth with 41 third-place votes, 51 fourth-place votes and five fifth-place votes for 363 points.

The MVP race is heavily influenced by popularity, with voters factoring in both statistics and the narrative around each player’s performance. However, there are no rigid criteria for choosing the winner, as various elements like individual stats, the player’s role on the best team and more all come into play.

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John Ezekiel Hirro is an experienced NBA and WNBA journalist at Sportskeeda, with over five years in the field as a news correspondent, sports writer, and Editor-in-Chief. His sports writing career began in high school, where he garnered numerous accolades, including being named the national sports writing champion in 2016.

He earned his journalism degree from the University of Santo Tomas in the Philippines in 2024 and served as the Editor-in-Chief of The Varsitarian, the university’s official student publication, for four years—the longest in history.

A passionate basketball enthusiast, he became a fan of the OKC Thunder during the Russ-KD-Harden era. Russell Westbrook, his all-time favorite athlete, impressed him by stepping up as MVP after Kevin Durant’s departure. His current favorite players include Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren, who he believes are the future of the OKC franchise.

He excels in game analysis and rapid news story turnaround, drawing inspiration from the journalistic styles of Woj and Shams. He emphasizes thorough research to ensure accuracy in his articles. One of his most memorable moments is Russell Westbrook breaking Oscar Robertson’s record with his 42nd triple-double and securing a 106-105 victory over the Denver Nuggets with a buzzer-beating 3-pointer. Outside of writing, he enjoys listening to music and creating Spotify playlists.

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Edited by John Ezekiel Hirro