WASHINGTON — A Trump-brokered peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan represents a major breakthrough after decades of fighting between the neighboring nations — and offers the US “leverage” over Russia, an expert tells The Post.
The deal calls for the creation of a 20-mile transit corridor, modestly labeled the “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity,” that will allow Azerbaijanis direct access to their country’s westernmost region, explained Hudson Institute senior fellow Luke Coffey.
“If you look at a map of Azerbaijan, it’s in two chunks — you have Azerbaijan proper and then there’s Nakhchivan, which is an enclave,” Coffey said. “Think of it like the United States and Alaska, but instead of having Canada in between, you have Armenia.”
With Azerbaijan and Armenia at war since the late 1980s, Azerbaijanis have not been allowed to pass through Yerevan’s territory — forcing much longer trade trips to reach Nakhchivan.
In 2020, Russia — which has relations with both nations — oversaw an agreement to open a transit route through this region, “not for [Azerbaijan] to control it, but to open it, like in the same way we can ship goods to Alaska through Canada,” Coffey said.
“This never happened, though, because Russia as the power broker failed to implement it,” he explained.
Armenia — once heavily supported by Moscow — became frustrated, and the bad feelings grew in 2023 when Russia failed to come to its defense during a push by Azerbaijan to retake the Nagorno-Karabakh region, which Armenia had occupied for more than 20 years.
The deal announced by Trump Friday — which also gives the US exclusive development rights along the new route — would allow Washington to fill the void left by Moscow, further distancing Russia from its former possessions in West Asia as Vladimir Putin pursues expansionist goals in Ukraine.
Putin has long lamented the fall of the Soviet regime, which he has called the “disintegration of historical Russia” and “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the [20th] century.”
Should the US deal hold up, it would demonstrate Russia’s “diminishing sway within its so-called ‘near-abroad,’” said John Hardie, director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracy’s Russia program.
“They’re being sidelined in a conflict that they used to play a key role in keeping frozen, and using it as a form of leverage over the two parties,” he added.
While it’s unclear whether the Armenia-Azerbaijan deal will help end the Ukraine war, Russia “is not going to be happy,” about the US’ new prominence in the Caucuses, Coffey said.
“I’m sure it’s being featured in the talks with [the US] and the Kremlin, and who knows what could be agreed behind closed doors?” he said. “Maybe as part of a larger settlement to get Russia to the table with Ukraine, the US will then say, ‘OK, a Russian company or Russia can have a role in this transit route.
”I wouldn’t put anything past this White House — and I don’t mean that in a derogatory sense — but they see this purely as transactional. For them, it’s just, ‘How do we get the best deal?’”
