Doomsday — or at least Hollywood’s version of it — is approaching. Nuclear saber-rattling is increasingly taking center stage in the mounting standoff between President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin over ending Russia’s war against Ukraine.
Team Trump has finally seen through Putin’s game. In early July, Trump admitted that “We get a lot of bulls— thrown at us by Putin.”
Now, the White House’s patience with Moscow is ending. Last week, Trump told reporters on Air Force One that he was shortening his previous 50-day ultimatum for Russia to “enter into a peace deal [with Ukraine] or face sanctions” to 10 days — that is, by this Friday, Aug. 8.
The Kremlin was not fazed by Trump’s latest demand. Former Russian President Dmitry Peskov countered, “We have been living under a large number of sanctions for quite some time — our economy operates under heavy restrictions, so naturally, we have developed a certain immunity to it.”
Sanctions alone will not deter Putin. He is reasonably confident he can defeat Ukraine before any new secondary sanctions take effect, and equally confident that his BRICS economic partners — Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates — will keep his economy afloat.
While Russian ground forces continue to slog their way forward on the battlefields in eastern and southern Ukraine, Putin is throwing the kitchen sink at Ukrainian cities, terrorizing civilians with daily ballistic missile and drone strikes. Yet, as history has repeatedly demonstrated, strategic bombing is rarely decisive.
Putin has been confident before. The heads of his intelligence service, Colonel-General Sergei Beseda and his deputy Anatoly Bolyuk, told Putin what he wanted to hear prior to the launch of his special military operation.
Ukraine was ripe for the picking. Besada called it a “plan premised on the idea that a lightning assault on Kyiv would topple the government in a matter of days. [Ukrainian President Volodymyr] Zelensky would be dead, captured or in exile, creating a political vacuum for FSB agents to fill.”
But Zelensky was neither captured or killed, nor did he abandon Ukraine; rather, he turned down an offer from the U.S. to evacuate, famously stating, “The fight is here; I need ammunition, not a ride.”
Both Besada and Bolyuk were arrested in March 2022 and taken to the Lefortovo prison in Moscow. The cost of their Putin-pleasing has been 3.5 years of sustained combat with a price tag of more than 1,059,270 casualties, an economy on the verge of collapse, and a military dependent upon his arsenals of evil — predominately Iran and North Korea — to supply weapons, ammunition, and soldiers to do his fighting.
Even so, Putin continues to believe his generals in the Kremlin that victory is within reach in Ukraine. Never mind the fact that none of his generals have delivered him a decisive win. It is still safer — at least in the moment — to tell Putin what he wants to hear rather than what he needs to hear.
To buy time, Moscow’s nuclear saber-rattling is also resuming in earnest. Previously, Russian threats of nuclear escalation had their intended effect on the Biden Administration. This time, Team Trump is pushing back with their own nuclear demonstrations.
Washington, effectively, is returning to the Cold War doctrine of mutual assured destruction — and Trump is demonstrating a willingness to walk up the escalation ladder with Putin. In response, Medvedev raised the specter of the old Soviet “dead hand” system automatically launching all of Russia’s nuclear missiles in retaliation for a first strike by the U.S.
That has many in Washington focused on what happens on Aug. 8. The Pentagon has already renewed military assistance to Ukraine, reaching a deal with NATO to provide Kyiv with weapons and Patriot missiles. Trump has threatened to cripple the Russian economy with additional tariffs and sanctions if Putin does not agree to a ceasefire, but he has also acknowledged that Russia is “pretty good at avoiding sanctions.”
All this occurs amid a game of nuclear chicken — the doomsday clock likely has ticked a few more seconds closer to midnight.
In mid-July, Trump reportedly sent tactical nuclear weapons to the United Kingdom. Last Friday the President posted on Truth Social that he had “ordered two Nuclear Submarines to be positioned in the appropriate regions” in response to Medvedev’s threats. “Words are very important, and can often lead to unintended consequences,” Trump said. “I hope this will not be one of those instances.”
Putin responded by announcing that Russia’s new Oreshnik hypersonic missile had officially entered serial production and was set to be deployed in Belarus by the end of 2025. This, in addition to the tactical nuclear weapons Moscow deployed to Minsk in October 2023, presents a formidable threat to Western Europe.
Yet Putin was all smiles yesterday as he greeted Steve Witkoff — Trump’s special envoy to Russia. Yuri Ushakov, a Putin aide, quickly spun the meeting as “very constructive” and conducive to “strategic cooperation.” Missing was any mention of a ceasefire in Ukraine.
Putin is once again playing Team Trump for time. His maximalist terms remain unchanged. He believes he is winning in Ukraine and is not likely to come off his conditions — including Kyiv’s total capitulation — for a peace deal. Only a huge setback on the battlefield will convince Putin he cannot win in Ukraine.
In the meantime, Trump’s Aug. 8 deadline should have been a hard one. By agreeing to meet with Putin as soon as next week, Trump is only giving Russia additional time to bomb Ukraine into submission. Trump must not cower to Russian nuclear threats. This is his war now, with 89 seconds to midnight on the Doomsday clock, and he must break the cycle.
Col. (Ret.) Jonathan Sweet served 30 years as an Army intelligence officer. Mark Toth writes on national security and foreign policy.
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