(The Center Square) – Expected to be the most expensive U.S. Senate race in history, polling released Friday gave former North Carolina Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper a lead on Republican Michael Whatley of 47%-41%.
The sampling taken Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday of 1,000 registered voters has +/- 3% margin of error. Both men are trying to win the seat held the last two terms by Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C.
Estimates for spending range from $500 million to $750 million. Neither is expected to have serious competition at the March 3 primary. Election Day in 2026 is 460 days away on Nov. 3.
A poll released by Victory Insights a day earlier was a statistical tie in a 3% lead for Cooper with undecided voters leaning Republican.
Since Thursday of last week, both candidates have been known to be in pursuit of the six-year term. Politico was first with Whatley’s closely-guarded secret, and WRAL and sources confirming Cooper. The former governor shared his intent by hint at the state party convention on Saturday and formally announced in a video message Monday morning; Whatley formally launched on Thursday.
Name recognition, the pollster said, is a factor at this stage. Emerson also said the state’s largest voting bloc (38%), those registering as unaffiliated, favor Cooper 47%-28%.
Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson polling, said in a statement, “With over a year to go until the North Carolina U.S. Senate race, Whatley’s low name recognition presents both a challenge and an opportunity. While only 17% view him favorably, nearly two-thirds of voters either don’t know him or are unsure. That leaves room for his campaign to define him before his opponent does. In contrast, Cooper enters the race with significantly higher name recognition and a more favorable public image.”
For Cooper to win, he’ll have to continue a personal trend and shake the Democrats’ skid in another.
In six statewide races Cooper has never lost, winning governor twice after four as attorney general. Democrats, however, have lost U.S. Senate races five consecutive times since 2008, have only won 10 of 42 statewide races since 2020, and have won just two midterm U.S. Senate seats twice (1998, 1986) in the last half century.
Whatley, meanwhile, has never run for public office. He has, however, led the Republican National Committee with Trump’s daughter-in-law Lara that helped give the party a trifecta in Washington. Before that, he led the North Carolina Republican Party that has majorities in the General Assembly, and won six of 10 Council of State races in 2020.
Favorability ratings are 51% for Cooper and 17% for Whatley, the Emerson poll says. In context, Whatley only had 16% unfavorable and 66% were either unsure (30%) or not familiar (36%) with him.
Emerson also asked respondents about favorability of eight-time Super Bowl champion Bill Belichick, the new football coach at Carolina giving college a try for the first time. His favorable rating was 24%, unfavorable 27%, and 48% were either neutral or had never heard of him.
Significant trends for North Carolina voters is to register independent (38%), provide more support for Democrats on the state level (three Republican governors since 1900), and choose Republicans for federal office. In addition to the Senate wins for the Grand Old Party, only two Democrats have carried presidential elections in the last 60 years and each (Jimmy Carter, Barack Obama) failed in their reelections whereas Trump is 3-for-3 winning the state.
In other interesting tidbits from the poll, respondents say family finances from a year ago are worse (40%) more than the same (32%) or better (28%); negative impact is expected (36%) from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act over positive impact (31%); and federal government response to East Coast hurricanes last year is rated excellent by 8%, good by 35%, not so good by 37%, and poor by 21%.
