Sam Panayotovich
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
Four great teams, four successful programs and four No. 1 seeds.
College basketball should impress this weekend down in San Antonio, where Auburn, Duke, Florida and Houston all aim to be the last team standing.
And say what you want about the lack of sleepers and upsets, this has all the ingredients to create one of the most exciting men’s Final Fours ever.
Let’s see if we can build on our 7-4 run this tourney.
No. 1 Florida (-2.5, O/U 159.5) vs. No. 1 Auburn
How healthy is Johni Broome?
That’s the million-dollar question among sports bettors. And even though Auburn is essentially saying Broome is “good to go,” I know plenty of people who are skeptical.
My true numbers — assuming everyone is healthy — have Florida closer to -1, so the uncertainty is certainly baked in.
I might be in the minority thinking Broome will be fine, but I also can’t get to this number. It’s wild to me that we talked about Duke and Auburn vs. the field for five months, yet now Florida is a possession better.
Auburn’s offense hits you from every direction and the Tigers are as resilient as any team in the country. They’ve been through some battles this year and their calmness and composure keep winning out. I believe their guards can stifle Walter Clayton Jr. and that Auburn can deliver the knockout blow that UConn and Texas Tech couldn’t land against the Gators.
Take the points.
PICK: Auburn (+2.5) to lose by fewer than 2.5 points or win outright
Will Duke, Houston, Florida or Auburn win the National Championship?
No. 1 Duke (-5.5, O/U 136.5) vs. No. 1 Houston
The Blue Devils are the nation’s best team, and it’s no surprise that respected bettors fired Duke earlier this week at -4.5 and -5. I have no interest in laying -5.5, mostly because of the pre-existing positions on Duke to win the national title. That said, I did add a couple of parlays on Duke to win the title with Scottie Scheffler to win The Masters around +950.
It is what it is.
Houston’s defense is elite, but elite offense has beaten elite defense all Tournament. And if the Cougars continue to double and chase on that side of the ball, it’ll leave Duke’s sharpshooters plenty of wide-open looks from 3. I expect Cooper Flagg to be the best player on the floor but Kon Knueppel to be the difference maker.
If he’s knocking down shots, forget about it.
I don’t believe Houston can win a track meet against Duke and Kelvin Sampson likely knows this. Look for the Cougars to try and slow the tempo early and keep this game in the halfcourt. Maybe they’ll have some extra tricks up their sleeve in the first 20 minutes.
PICK: Houston first half team total Under 65.5
PICK: Kon Knueppel Over 14.5 points
Finally, let’s take a peek at the Most Outstanding Player market.
Duke’s Flagg (+110) is favored at BetMGM, followed by Florida’s Clayton (+375), Auburn’s Broome (+700) and Houston’s L.J. Cryer (+1000).
If you’re willing to dive a little bit deeper down the board, Knueppel speaks to me at 25/1. He’s got NBA range and accuracy from deep, and there’s a solid chance he’ll lead the Blue Devils in scoring the next two games.
A $50 dollar Knueppel bet would win $1,250.
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and the BetMGM Network. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.
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