Early in the Major League Baseball season, it seemed the American League MVP award was all but wrapped up. New York Yankees slugger Aaron Judge — the reigning AL MVP award winner — was flirting with hitting .400 and one bettor had even wagered $2,000 at 175-1 odds at BetMGM that he would accomplish the feat.
Even if that was highly unlikely, Judge was still as high as a -10000 favorite to win the AL MVP at BetMGM in early June, which equates to roughly a 99% implied probability. But as Judge cooled off (relatively), Seattle Mariners’ Cal Raleigh caught fire and now leads the majors with 41 home runs.
Raleigh is second in RBIs (86, one ahead of Judge), and thanks to Judge’s flexor strain that landed him on the 10-day IL, Raleigh has improbably become the new favorite to win the AL MVP award at BetMGM, with -135 odds to Judge’s +105. Detroit Tigers pitcher Tarik Skubal (40-1) has the next-best odds.
Back in June, when Judge was -10000, Raleigh had 35-1 odds to win the award, or roughly a 3% chance. Due to those long-shot odds, some liability on Raleigh winning the AL MVP has piled up at BetMGM.
“It wouldn’t be pretty for us,” Halvor Egeland, trading strategy manager at BetMGM, said via text message on the prospects of Raleigh winning MVP. “Cal has a pretty decent liability with us. In the beginning of June, he was 50-1, so there was a good amount of time for bettors to get a nice big number on him.”
While there aren’t any singular wagers with massive liability at BetMGM, small bets at big prices, including a few $100 wagers at big odds, per Egeland, add up quickly. Raleigh now has the most total dollars wagered (28%) of any other player to win AL MVP at the sportsbook, and represents their worst result.
It will be a fascinating race to watch the rest of the season, especially if Judge can get back on the field soon.
