Key Points
In the first quarter, billionaires David Shaw and Louis Bacon sold Apple and bought O’Reilly Automotive, a stock-split stock up 510% in the last decade.
Apple is struggling to incorporate artificial intelligence into its business, and the company has gone seven-plus years without a groundbreaking new product.
O’Reilly Automotive could be a winner as President Trump’s tariffs encourage consumers to service older vehicles rather than purchasing new ones.
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The hedge fund billionaires listed below sold Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) during the first quarter and bought O’Reilly Automotive (NASDAQ: ORLY), a company whose share price rocketed 510% over the last decade, leading to a 15-for-1 stock split in early June.
David Shaw’s D.E. Shaw & Co. sold 340,900 shares of Apple, trimming its stake by 6%. The hedge fund also added 19,000 shares of O’Reilly Automotive, though it remains a very small holding.
Louis Bacon’s Moore Capital Management sold 495,800 shares of Apple, cutting its stake 97%. The hedge fund also purchased 240 shares of O’Reilly Automotive, starting a very small position.
Importantly, both hedge funds still have exposure to Apple, and neither has an especially large position in O’Reilly Automotive. But investors should still consider both trades for their own portfolios. Here’s why.
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1. Apple
Apple has durable brand moat built on design expertise that spans hardware and software. The company once again led the market in smartphone revenue in the March quarter, and it posted double-digit sales growth in its services segment due to strength in advertising, the App Store, and cloud storage. But its overall performance was still uninspiring. Revenue rose 5% to $95 billion, and generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) net income climbed 5% to $24.8 billion.
Importantly, Apple has struggled to incorporate artificial intelligence (AI) into its business. Analysts thought the suite of generative AI features added last year (i.e., Apple Intelligence) would catalyze a massive iPhone upgrade cycle, but the consumer response has so far been underwhelming, perhaps because the company has repeatedly delayed highly anticipated AI upgrades to its digital assistant Siri.
Apple’s failure to monetize AI speaks to a larger problem: The company has seemingly lost its capacity for innovation. After a long stint of very successful product launches — the iPhone in 2007, the iPad in 2010, the Apple Watch in 2015, and AirPods in 2017 — Apple has now gone seven-plus years without a noteworthy new product. And its inability to capitalize on soaring demand for AI is a troubling continuation of that pattern.
Wall Street expects Apple’s earnings to increase at 11% annually over the next three years. That already makes the current valuation of 33 times earnings look expensive, but analysts may be overestimating. Apple’s earnings compounded at less than 2% annually during the last three years despite the company repurchasing 8% of its outstanding shares.
Put differently, had Apple not repurchased any stock during the last three years, earnings would have declined nearly 5% in that period. And with no clear catalysts on the horizon, earnings growth is likely to be meager in the coming years. Investors should avoid the stock right now, and shareholders with especially large positions should consider trimming.
2. O’Reilly Automotive
O’Reilly Automotive is one of the largest specialty retailers of aftermarket automative parts, tools, equipment, and accessories. The company operates more than 6,400 stores across North America, serving both do-it-yourself (DIY) and professional customers. It also has a robust distribution network that allows “timely access to a broad range of products,” which helps the company retain customers.
Importantly, while O’Reilly will be impacted by tariffs on imported automobiles and parts, duties imposed by the Trump administration could actually be a net win for the company. That’s because the 25% tax on imported automobiles will raise car prices, encouraging consumers to service older vehicles rather than purchasing new ones. Furthermore, the average interest rate on U.S. auto loans has almost doubled in the last four years.
O’Reilly reported encouraging Q2 financial results. Revenue rose 6% to $4.5 billion, driven by 67 new store openings and 4.1% same-store sales growth. Meanwhile, GAAP earnings jumped 11% to $0.78 per diluted share, outpacing revenue growth because the company repurchased 6.8 million shares. Management also raised full-year guidance, such that earnings are forecast to increase 9% in 2025.
Wall Street expects O’Reilly’s earnings to increase at 10% annually during the next three to five years. That makes the current valuation of 36 times earnings look relatively expensive. Nevertheless, I think investors should consider buying a small position in this stock today. And if the share price declines, they should consider building a bigger position at a more reasonable valuation multiple.
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Trevor Jennewine has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Apple. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
