A sprawling area of storms dropping heavy rain along the Gulf Coast Thursday could produce significant flash flooding into the weekend and still has a small chance to become the Atlantic hurricane season’s next tropical system.
Louisiana is at the greatest risk for dangerous flash flooding, but the heavy rain could also spell trouble for other areas along the Gulf from Florida to Texas in the next couple of days as the area of stormy weather churns near the coast. The storminess is quickly running out of time to develop into a full-fledged tropical system, according to the National Hurricane Center, but its flooding rain threat remains the same.
The worst-case scenario, where storms stall near the coast for a significant time, would mean parts of southern Louisiana could receive close to a foot of rain, with rainfall rates up to 2 to 3 inches per hour. This would likely overwhelm soils and cause flash flooding, especially in south-central Louisiana, where the low-lying terrain and nearby waterways leave the area especially vulnerable. Any bouts of heavy rain could also create issues in flood-prone New Orleans, where the ground is already saturated from recent rain.
By Thursday afternoon, at least one flash flood warning was in effect in south-central Louisiana with the National Weather Service warning up to 9 inches of rain had already fallen in parts of the area. Farther east, part of New Orleans was under a flood advisory that cautioned some urban and minor river flooding was possible.
The potential storm’s flood threat is just the latest in what has been a summer full of deadly and devastating floods.
A Level 3 of 4 risk of flooding rainfall is in place Thursday for south-central Louisiana, with a Level 2 of 4 risk along the Gulf Coast from east Texas to the west Florida panhandle – including New Orleans, Mobile, Alabama, and Gulfport, Mississippi. Heavy storms could be long-lasting, tracking over the same areas repeatedly and soaking the same spots with several inches of rain. On Friday, there is a Level 2 of 4 flood risk for the same areas, including farther inland in Louisiana.
In New Orleans, officials opened several sandbag distribution sites Wednesday ahead of the heaviest rain, according to a notification from the city. All city buildings are closed to the public Thursday due to the weather threat.
Earlier in the week, it looked like this stormy weather would have a decent chance of becoming at least a tropical depression with plenty of very warm water in place in the Gulf. Despite moving over that water, which would provide fuel for development, the storms have so far been ripped apart by hostile upper-level winds, leaving it unlikely to claim Dexter, the next name on the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season list.
“Regardless of development, heavy showers and thunderstorms are expected over the north-central Gulf through Friday, with erratic gusty winds and rough seas possible,” warns the hurricane center.
Signs of trouble began earlier this week. The storm cluster traveled across the Florida peninsula Monday into Tuesday, dropping nearly a foot of rain in the Tampa area. This amount of rain in a short time overwhelmed even Florida’s resilient, sandy soil, causing flooding in Brevard County, according to the National Weather Service’s Tampa Bay office.
Daytona Beach was drenched with 2.25 inches of rain on Tuesday, breaking its previous daily record of 2 inches set on July 15, 1935.
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