By Tim McLaughlin
, (Reuters) -President Donald Trump claims that rapid adoption of solar and wind power has made U.S. electricity unstable and expensive, justifying his bid to end most subsidies for renewable energy.
But reliability has improved dramatically in the U.S. grid with the most renewable energy – in Texas – and electricity prices there are below the national average, according to regulatory filings and price data reviewed by Reuters. At the same time, some grids that rely primarily on fossil fuel generation have experienced reliability issues and surging prices.
The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), the state’s main grid operator, forecasts only a 0.30% chance of rolling blackouts during peak energy demand in August, according to its June 6 reliability assessment. That is a vast improvement from the 12% chance it predicted for August 2024.
Electricity prices for Texas residential customers and businesses are about 10 cents per kilowatt hour, 24% below the national average, according to the latest monthly report by the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
“ERCOT has done a good job of defining the products needed for energy and reliability,” said Joshua Rhodes, a research scientist at the University of Texas in Austin. “It could be an example for other grids in how to create reliability at a low cost.”
The Texas grid’s performance rebuts the assumptions driving Trump’s sweeping tax-and-spending bill that Congress passed last week, which will end subsidies that boosted adoption of solar, wind and other clean energy technologies.
U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright cheered the cuts in a social media post saying the bill “will help end wasteful subsidies and deliver more reliable energy for the American people!”
On Monday Trump signed his latest executive order directing federal agencies to strengthen provisions in the One Big Beautiful Bill that repeal or modify tax credits for solar and wind projects. Trump called renewable energy unreliable and expensive. He said renewables displaced more dependable sources, relied on foreign-controlled supply chains and harmed the environment.
Solar and wind power only work when the sun is shining or the wind is blowing. This intermittency can risk significant shortfalls during periods of high demand.
Indeed, the Texas power grid has had major failures over the years, but not all were related to renewables.
In February 2021, natural gas pipelines and well heads froze during a freak cold snap, interrupting supplies to gas-fired generators and causing blackouts that left millions in Texas without power for days.
Texas has invested in large-scale battery storage facilities for surplus power from wind, solar or other generators. These release the power when it is needed, and they have helped to sharply reduce the chances of blackouts this year, according to ERCOT’s resource adequacy reports reviewed by Reuters.
Since summer 2024, ERCOT said it has added nearly 5 gigawatts of battery storage, lifting total capacity above 8 gigawatts. Another 174 gigawatts of storage await connection over the next five years, according to ERCOT.
ERCOT declined to comment on Trump’s assertions that renewables destabilize the grid.
“Increasing capacity from solar and battery storage have been a winning combo for the Texas grid over the past two years,” said Garrett Golding, an assistant vice president of energy programs at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. “(It) can be a model for other states with similar climates, but I doubt it applies universally.”
The White House did not return a message seeking comment.
BETTER THAN OTHERS
Grids that depend on fossil fuels are not immune to reliability and price issues.
The PJM Interconnection, the largest U.S. regional grid, relies heavily on fossil fuels and its electricity prices are soaring while reliability is falling.
“The grid is a rusted old pickup truck and we’re adding multiple pressures onto it,” said Tom Bullock, executive director of The Citizens Utility Board of Ohio, a consumer watchdog group.
In Ohio, a key market in PJM’s territory, state regulators expect electricity prices to increase more than 20% this year.
Last year, natural gas and coal plants accounted for nearly 60% of PJM’s electricity generation output. Wind and solar were about 6%, according to PJM.
Bullock and other consumer advocates said Trump’s rejection of renewables could exacerbate electricity price inflation instead of controlling it, particularly as power demand escalates from data centers and electric vehicles.
A U.S. Department of Energy analysis issued this week estimated substantial electricity blackouts in PJM’s territory in the next five years, absent a massive amount of new generation.
In a worst-case scenario, PJM could have more than 1,000 annual hours when electricity production does not meet demand, the DOE report said. PJM declined to comment on the DOE report.
ERCOT’s total was just 149 hours in the DOE’s worst-case analysis.
“The report recognizes that ERCOT has improved in addressing grid vulnerabilities,” DOE spokesperson Ben Dietderich said.
Frank Rambo, executive director of Horizon Climate Initiative, a non-profit that supports cutting fossil fuel generation, said he fears Trump’s policies will upend years of planning by utilities, grid operators and state commissions seeking to add renewable energy sources.
“It’s got destabilization written all over it,” Rambo said.
(Reporting by Tim McLaughlin; Editing by Richard Valdmanis and David Gregorio)
